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Friday, February 7, 2014

The January (Lack of ) Jobs Report

The Labor Department issued the January employment report about twenty minutes ago.  It was a rerun of the one for December.  In other words, it was a terrible mess with some misleading statistics thrown in to provide political cover.  The economy created about 112,000 jobs in January according to the feds.  This follows and even lower number (around 70,000) that were created in December.  To put this in context, consider these facts: 

1.  Expectations by economists were that there would be just under 200,000 new jobs created in each month.  The combined number for two months was almost, but not quite, at the expectations for last month alone. 
2.  The same economists (and many pundits) told us that the December number would be revised upward because the previous report was obviously too low.  There was NO material revision, however.
3.  Prior to the recession, the rule of thumb was that the economy had to create at least 175,000 jobs just to keep up with the growth of the population.  The last two months ran at half that level, and the growth of the population has not slowed.

Put all this together and we have an extremely disappointing report.  But then, top off that report with the news that the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% in January.  At least, that is what the Obama administration is reporting.  In the last two months, job creation has run at only half the level needed to keep up with population growth, but the unemployment rate has gone from 7.0% to 6.6%.  What a disgrace!  We know that in 2012, the people at the Labor Department were directed to "complete" the jobs survey in a way to make things look better.  It certainly seems that this is happening again.   You do the math.

On top of this, though, there remains one major question.  Where is the president's plan to help restart the economy?  How does Obama propose to create jobs?  I know he wants longer unemployment benefits, but that is not a job creation plan.  No one with a functioning brain could say that.  I know that Obama wants universal pre-school, but that too will not create jobs other than for a few teachers.  It will not help the economy now.  That exhausts Obama's suggestions.  We need to know why our president, a man who thinks that government can do essentially anything, has no plan and no ideas on what the government can do to help create jobs.





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