We are soon going to learn if a red line drawn by China is different from a red line drawn by president Obama. As you may recall, Obama's red line was the use in Syria of chemical weapons. Obama said that such a move by the Assad regime would not be tolerated. Of course, Assad then used the chemical weapons over 15 times before the Obama administration would even acknowledge that such attacks had happened. It took widely distributed video of hundreds of Syrians suffering and dying from a massive attack with sarin gas before Obama and the White House announced in public that the red line had been crossed. Then, in the space of two weeks, Obama managed to throw away the red line and to agree to take steps that essentially guaranteed that the war criminal Assad, the man who used chemical weapons and crossed the red line, would stay in power as president of Syria.
The Chinese, however, had a different sort of red line. A few months back, China announced creation of a new air defense zone over the ocean in the vicinity of the Senkaku islands. Those islands are part of Japan which China claims. Right now the Japanese are ignoring this new air defense zone, but the tensions are rising between the two Asian powers. At some point, China may decide that the red line has been crossed and all hell could break loose.
In an unintentionally humorous move, the USA announced that it would honor its treaty obligations to Japan under a 53 year old treaty that calls for America to defend Japan if it is attacked. If I were prime minister Abe in Tokyo, I would worry whether or not this is another Obama red line. Were China actually to attack, would Obama order American armed forces to get involved in what could turn into nuclear war? The truth is that Obama's sorry performance in the Syrian mess emboldens the Chinese because they have to consider whether or not Obama would actually get involved. Obama's Syrian disaster also undermines the Japanese because they cannot be sure if reliance on the USA under Obama makes sense.
There used to be an ad by New York Telephone with the refrain "we're all connected". Maybe we are and maybe we are not. One thing is certain, however, in international relations, everything is connected. Weakness with Syria has major repercussions half a world away in the Pacific.
The Chinese, however, had a different sort of red line. A few months back, China announced creation of a new air defense zone over the ocean in the vicinity of the Senkaku islands. Those islands are part of Japan which China claims. Right now the Japanese are ignoring this new air defense zone, but the tensions are rising between the two Asian powers. At some point, China may decide that the red line has been crossed and all hell could break loose.
In an unintentionally humorous move, the USA announced that it would honor its treaty obligations to Japan under a 53 year old treaty that calls for America to defend Japan if it is attacked. If I were prime minister Abe in Tokyo, I would worry whether or not this is another Obama red line. Were China actually to attack, would Obama order American armed forces to get involved in what could turn into nuclear war? The truth is that Obama's sorry performance in the Syrian mess emboldens the Chinese because they have to consider whether or not Obama would actually get involved. Obama's Syrian disaster also undermines the Japanese because they cannot be sure if reliance on the USA under Obama makes sense.
There used to be an ad by New York Telephone with the refrain "we're all connected". Maybe we are and maybe we are not. One thing is certain, however, in international relations, everything is connected. Weakness with Syria has major repercussions half a world away in the Pacific.
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