In the last two months, there have been a series of statements by, among others, president Obama, congressional Democrats and pundits/reporters in the mainstream media that the debate about Obamacare is over. They tell us that the law is here to stay and cannot be changed except for minor modifications. In fact, lately I have been seeing a major flow of articles discussing how the Republicans are moving away from discussion of Obamacare and jobs and towards Benghazi and the IRS scandals instead.
These statements are either delusional or a coordinated attempt to get the GOP to give up its most potent election issues. After all, the group that has to decide whether or not Obamacare is here to stay is not the Democrat office holders or the liberals in the media; the people who make the ultimate decision are the voters. Once that basic truth is acknowledged, the idea that the debate about the future, if any, for Obamacare is over becomes ludicrous. Nearly every major polling organization asks the public regularly whether or not it approves or disapproves of Obamacare. The results are surprisingly constant. There is always a margin of 10 to 15% by which the public disapproves of Obamacare. Right now, the average of all recent polls on the subject shows that roughly 51% of the public disapprove of the law and less than 40% approve. Indeed, in the latest poll results (from AP), only 28% of those questioned approved of Obamacare. So there is a clear majority AGAINST the law.
On top of the settled public view that the law is unacceptable, there is also further data regarding the strength of that view. Many of the polls offer voters the choice of strong or weak approval and strong or weak disapproval. An overwhelming majority of those who oppose the law do so strongly. Those who approve of the law do so on a much more tepid basis.
When it comes to the November elections, there is also the point that opposition to the law is in many cases based upon unhappy personal experience with it. For example, my own insurance policy was cancelled due to Obamacare and I had to get a more expensive replacement that offered substantially less overage. Multiply my experience by many, many millions of times, and there is a big constituency of distinctly unhappy people when it comes to Obamacare. That negative personal experience is going to motivate those people to go to the polls to vote against those who support the law. On the other hand, many of those who have benefited from Obamacare (and there are also millions, although fewer than its victims) are in the groups that vote in the lowest numbers in midterm elections. This means that the clear majority against the law will turn into a much larger majority in the voting booth.
I hope that the Democrats keep believing that the Obamacare debate is over. I also hope that the GOP keeps up its attack on the law. If so, in November we may witness not just a wave election in favor of the GOP, but a tsunami instead.
These statements are either delusional or a coordinated attempt to get the GOP to give up its most potent election issues. After all, the group that has to decide whether or not Obamacare is here to stay is not the Democrat office holders or the liberals in the media; the people who make the ultimate decision are the voters. Once that basic truth is acknowledged, the idea that the debate about the future, if any, for Obamacare is over becomes ludicrous. Nearly every major polling organization asks the public regularly whether or not it approves or disapproves of Obamacare. The results are surprisingly constant. There is always a margin of 10 to 15% by which the public disapproves of Obamacare. Right now, the average of all recent polls on the subject shows that roughly 51% of the public disapprove of the law and less than 40% approve. Indeed, in the latest poll results (from AP), only 28% of those questioned approved of Obamacare. So there is a clear majority AGAINST the law.
On top of the settled public view that the law is unacceptable, there is also further data regarding the strength of that view. Many of the polls offer voters the choice of strong or weak approval and strong or weak disapproval. An overwhelming majority of those who oppose the law do so strongly. Those who approve of the law do so on a much more tepid basis.
When it comes to the November elections, there is also the point that opposition to the law is in many cases based upon unhappy personal experience with it. For example, my own insurance policy was cancelled due to Obamacare and I had to get a more expensive replacement that offered substantially less overage. Multiply my experience by many, many millions of times, and there is a big constituency of distinctly unhappy people when it comes to Obamacare. That negative personal experience is going to motivate those people to go to the polls to vote against those who support the law. On the other hand, many of those who have benefited from Obamacare (and there are also millions, although fewer than its victims) are in the groups that vote in the lowest numbers in midterm elections. This means that the clear majority against the law will turn into a much larger majority in the voting booth.
I hope that the Democrats keep believing that the Obamacare debate is over. I also hope that the GOP keeps up its attack on the law. If so, in November we may witness not just a wave election in favor of the GOP, but a tsunami instead.
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