A Look Back At The Polls

During the election campaign, one story that I heard on multiple occasions was that the Monmouth Poll was the "gold standard" of polling.  It was to be considered the gospel, or so we were told.  Well now we have actual results that can be compared to the poll numbers.  Of the eleven major polling groups, guess whose poll came in last for accuracy?  If you guessed Monmouth, you are correct.  The poll that came closest to the final numbers was the Rasmussen tracking poll which pegged the election results at 1.7% for Hillary.  The actual results came in at roughly 1% for Hillary.  (These are popular vote figures.)  Rasmussen was repeatedly criticized in the media as a pro-Republican poll that was not publishing accurate figures.  It seems the poll was correct, while the media was just fooling itself.

Another poll that came quite close was the IBD tracking poll.  That poll had been the most accurate in 2012, 2008 and 2004.  This year, it had Trump up by 1% in the final number and came in second in accuracy.

It's also worth remembering that all the polls from the big name organizations like CBS, NBC, Fox News and ABC were way off.  WAY OFF!