In 2008, Barack Obama won the presidency, Democrats got a filibuster proof majority in the US Senate and held a large majority in the House. The Democrats also controlled the majority of the governorships in the USA and held the majority in most of the state legislatures around the county. In 2009, we were all treated to endless stories about the demise of the Republican Party. The GOP was disappearing; its demise was inevitable due to demographic shifts in American. It might remain as a "rump party" in the South, but any chance of Republicans winning a national majority had disappeared forever. The pundits wrote article after article repeating these points; they were all telling each other the received wisdom of the inside the beltway crowd.
In 2010, we had the Tea Party election. The GOP took back control of the US House. The GOP also gained control of the majority in the state legislatures and moved way up in the number of governors. In response, we got an avalanche of articles about the inevitable demographic takeover by the Democrats.
In 2012, president Obama was re-elected by a much narrower margin than in 2008, but the GOP held onto the House majority. Once again, we were told the accepted wisdom that demographics mandated a Democrat victory in any presidential election.
In 2014, the GOP picked up many more seats in Congress and took control of the senate as well. The Republicans also got more governors and state legislature. You guessed it; we also got the endless stories about the Democrats' demographic triumphs.
Even yesterday on election night, as Trump rolled up his majority in Florida, the network pundits were telling us about how there were a half million new Hispanic voters in that state which guaranteed a Clinton victory. As Trump won the state, many of these pundits seemed bewildered by a reality that disagreed with their accepted wisdom.
The reality is that no party has a lock on the voters. Trump doubled the percentage of black votes that Romney got four years ago. It's still a low percentage, but that shift was enough to let Trump win in some states. Trump also did better among Hispanics than Romney did four years earlier.
This could all reverse in the next election, but we had all better realize that no bloc of voters belongs to either party.
This year, the demographic story was once again front and center.
In 2010, we had the Tea Party election. The GOP took back control of the US House. The GOP also gained control of the majority in the state legislatures and moved way up in the number of governors. In response, we got an avalanche of articles about the inevitable demographic takeover by the Democrats.
In 2012, president Obama was re-elected by a much narrower margin than in 2008, but the GOP held onto the House majority. Once again, we were told the accepted wisdom that demographics mandated a Democrat victory in any presidential election.
In 2014, the GOP picked up many more seats in Congress and took control of the senate as well. The Republicans also got more governors and state legislature. You guessed it; we also got the endless stories about the Democrats' demographic triumphs.
Even yesterday on election night, as Trump rolled up his majority in Florida, the network pundits were telling us about how there were a half million new Hispanic voters in that state which guaranteed a Clinton victory. As Trump won the state, many of these pundits seemed bewildered by a reality that disagreed with their accepted wisdom.
The reality is that no party has a lock on the voters. Trump doubled the percentage of black votes that Romney got four years ago. It's still a low percentage, but that shift was enough to let Trump win in some states. Trump also did better among Hispanics than Romney did four years earlier.
This could all reverse in the next election, but we had all better realize that no bloc of voters belongs to either party.
This year, the demographic story was once again front and center.
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