If you remember back last January when the Iowa caucuses were just a few days away, we got final polling data for that state. One poll that made a big splash was the poll done by the state's largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register. The Washington Post called that survey the "gold standard" of Iowa polling. That name was repeated all across the mainstream media. Well, the gold standard of Iowa polling is now out with its final survey for Tuesday's elections. It has Trump ahead of Clinton by 46 to 39%, a lead of 7% which is well outside the margin of error.
It's interesting to note that I didn't see a single mainstream media report calling the Des Moines Register poll the gold standard this time. Now it may well be that the race in Iowa will be closer than a 7% Trump victory; there are some 7% undecided in the poll and others who are choosing Johnson or Stein who may switch in the voting booth, but that 7% margin is a pretty good indicator of a win by Trump in Iowa.
Keep in mind also that if Iowa is at 7%, that would be a larger margin than Trump has had in Iowa polling since September. It may also indicate that voters in southern Minnesota which is very much like Iowa are also turning towards Trump. That could explain the rally scheduled by Trump for Minnesota in the closing days of the campaign.
Or, of course, the gold standard of Iowa polling could be wrong. We will know soon enough.
It's interesting to note that I didn't see a single mainstream media report calling the Des Moines Register poll the gold standard this time. Now it may well be that the race in Iowa will be closer than a 7% Trump victory; there are some 7% undecided in the poll and others who are choosing Johnson or Stein who may switch in the voting booth, but that 7% margin is a pretty good indicator of a win by Trump in Iowa.
Keep in mind also that if Iowa is at 7%, that would be a larger margin than Trump has had in Iowa polling since September. It may also indicate that voters in southern Minnesota which is very much like Iowa are also turning towards Trump. That could explain the rally scheduled by Trump for Minnesota in the closing days of the campaign.
Or, of course, the gold standard of Iowa polling could be wrong. We will know soon enough.
No comments:
Post a Comment