For all the drama and craziness of this election cycle, the outcome of the presidential election is best predicted by the answer to one simple question: who is actually going to vote. In 2012, president Obama won the election because black voters turned out in record numbers and nearly unanimously chose him while white voters turned out at a relatively low rate. Although the whites in 2012 supported Romney, the margin was not high enough to offset Obama's huge win among blacks. Even so, Obama still won by a margin of less than 4% of the popular vote. Much was made of the Hispanic vote in 2012, but it did not determine who won even though it favored Obama.
Moving forward to 2016, the issue of turnout has been flipped. We know that Hillary Clinton will not engender the African American turnout that Obama got. The big issue is how much lower will turnout be than it was for this group in 2012. We also know that Clinton will not win blacks by nearly the same margin that Obama got, although she is likely to still win by an overwhelming majority. Let's put this in proper perspective. So far in the early voting in Florida, blacks are turning out at a rate only 65% of 2012. In North Carolina early voting, the black vote is down by just over 10%. If we figure that black voting will be down ten percent compared to 2012 and that Hillary Clinton's gets 90% of the black vote compared to Obama's 96%, then more than half of Obama's margin of 2012 disappears. There would be a shift of 2% of the electorate as a whole.
We also know that in early voting there has been an uptick of Republicans and independents. There are many theories about this. One of the prevalent ones is that there are people who are turning out for Trump who have not voted regularly in the past. Another theory is that Hillary herself motivates more Republicans to turn out. Whatever the reason, however, it is certain that a higher GOP turnout means a boost to the Trump numbers. Trump gets 90% or more of the GOP vote. The independent vote is split much more closely, so a higher turnout there is not as important. If just 3% more of Republicans vote in 2016 than voted in 2012, then the remainder of the Obama margin is gone.
That leaves two large groups: white Democrats and Hispanics. Both groups will favor Hillary Clinton without a doubt. At the moment, however, it does not look like there is any surge in turnout for either. For example, Democrat turnout in early voting in North Carolina is flat compared to 2012 while GOP turnout is up more than 10%. Despite all the stories in the media, Trump seems to be outperforming Romney with Hispanics. We could actually see this election as one in which Trump wins because of increased support from Hispanics.
All of the above is speculative. We don't know if early voting indicates anything about the final turnout. We will only learn that on election day. Still, the key question then will still be just who voted.
Moving forward to 2016, the issue of turnout has been flipped. We know that Hillary Clinton will not engender the African American turnout that Obama got. The big issue is how much lower will turnout be than it was for this group in 2012. We also know that Clinton will not win blacks by nearly the same margin that Obama got, although she is likely to still win by an overwhelming majority. Let's put this in proper perspective. So far in the early voting in Florida, blacks are turning out at a rate only 65% of 2012. In North Carolina early voting, the black vote is down by just over 10%. If we figure that black voting will be down ten percent compared to 2012 and that Hillary Clinton's gets 90% of the black vote compared to Obama's 96%, then more than half of Obama's margin of 2012 disappears. There would be a shift of 2% of the electorate as a whole.
We also know that in early voting there has been an uptick of Republicans and independents. There are many theories about this. One of the prevalent ones is that there are people who are turning out for Trump who have not voted regularly in the past. Another theory is that Hillary herself motivates more Republicans to turn out. Whatever the reason, however, it is certain that a higher GOP turnout means a boost to the Trump numbers. Trump gets 90% or more of the GOP vote. The independent vote is split much more closely, so a higher turnout there is not as important. If just 3% more of Republicans vote in 2016 than voted in 2012, then the remainder of the Obama margin is gone.
That leaves two large groups: white Democrats and Hispanics. Both groups will favor Hillary Clinton without a doubt. At the moment, however, it does not look like there is any surge in turnout for either. For example, Democrat turnout in early voting in North Carolina is flat compared to 2012 while GOP turnout is up more than 10%. Despite all the stories in the media, Trump seems to be outperforming Romney with Hispanics. We could actually see this election as one in which Trump wins because of increased support from Hispanics.
All of the above is speculative. We don't know if early voting indicates anything about the final turnout. We will only learn that on election day. Still, the key question then will still be just who voted.
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