According to a new poll done by NPR, voters in the 70 districts likely to determine the control of the House in November prefer Republicans over Democrats by 49-41. The poll looked at open seats in possibly contested districts as well as seats held by Democrats that voted for McCain or held by Republicans but which voted for Obama. Further bad news for the Dems is that in these districts, Obama's job approval number is just 40%, many points lower than the national average. this means that those who approve Obama's performance are bunched into a relatively small number of districts and the remainder have high disapproval numbers. the third leg of the Republican trifecta is that among voters in these districts who are very interested in the election and most likely to vote, the Republicans are up 53-39.
Much can happen before November rolls around, but if these numbers hold, there will be a Republican House starting in January of 2011.
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