What if the facts change?

In an earlier post this morning, I wrote about the apparent lack of an actual policy by the Obama administration with regard to the Iranian nuclear program. Blather is not policy!

This brings us to the next question: what will Obama do if the Israelis protect themselves and attack the Iranian nukes. There have already been articles appearing to the effect that the Saudis have authorized the Israeli Air Force to fly over that country in order to attack the Iranians. The response has been predictable: the Israelis refuse to comment and the Saudis deny the articles are accurate. Unfortunately, this tells us nothing as the response is the same one that would have followed an accurate or an incorrect article.

But let's say the Israeli do attack; what will the USA do? If the attack has reasonable success, the Iranians will feel the need to strike back hard, or they will be revealed as weak, a fatal blow to that regime. Most likely Iran will unleash Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. The Iranians may also get their client Syria to attack. The Iranians may also launch missiles against Israel as well. but that will not be the end of it. I think it most likely that the Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz to international traffic and strangle the world oil market. If nothing else, the Iranians will attack US, UK and other shipping in the Persian Gulf. They will also step up attacks on US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Once Iran reacts, there will hopefully be some US response. Given the Obama track record, I suppose he will give a speech calling for calm and he will castigate the Israelis for what they have done. After this meaningless speech, we will see the true nature of US policy. I just hope the US actually has thought this through already. I have little confidence in this though.