In the last two days there have been two new polls out in Nevada: Rasmussen shows Reid over Angle by 2% and mason Dixon shows Reid over Angle by 1%. Even though he is ahead, this is very bad news for Harry Reid. After Sharron Angle won the GOP primary, Reid began a relentless TV campaign to paint Angle as a far right nut job, way too far out of the mainstream for Nevada. Although the figures are not public, I have seen estimates that Reid spent about 3 million dollars so far on this TV campaign. The strategy of Reid's camp was to make Angle such a crazy in the minds on the public that they would just tune her out in the days up to the election.
The poll results show that Reid's money dump has not worked. Sure, Reid has moved slightly ahead on the basis of a massive, essentially unanswered campaign. Angle, who was caught flat footed after the primary, has begun her response, but she has nothing like the resources that Reid has gathered over the years. Nor does Angle have the clout for money raising that comes with being not only the incumbent but also the Senate Majority leader. She has been getting help from conservatives across the country, however, and has at least raised enough to get her message out. Despite the barrage, Reid is only the choice of less than 45% of Nevadans. When there is a candidate like Reid, who everyone in the state already knows, and he cannot get over 50% of the vote, that candidate is in deep trouble. Even with his barrage, Reid cannot even come close to 50%.
The race is now Angle's to lose. If she can present a professional, intelligent face to the voters, they clearly want to choose her over Reid. If she can avoid falling into a trap that labels her an extremist, she will win by at least 53-47 in November. If she turns out to be a really good candidate, she could win in a landslide. Barring a major mistake by Angle, however, Reid is toast.
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