According to the Washington Post, the Obamacrats are going to try to win in November by increasing the turnout of blacks, latinos and young people. The reason for this strategy is that Obama has lost the support of whites; his poll numbers are down about 20% among whites since he took office.
This is good news. It means that the obamacrats have begun to panic about November. The estimate is that whites will comprise something like 78 or 79% of those voting in November. In order to reduce that number to even 75%, there would need to be a massive turnout among the target groups. To put it mildly, this is a hail Mary play.
First, the election for the House is by district. After years of gerrymandering, most blacks live in districts where they are the majority. That is why the Congressional black caucus nearly always gets re-elected. If Charlie Rangel gets another 5% of the vote it does not matter. Democrats pushed for years for this set up just to assure that they would have these votes. It will prevent them from making much headway in November with this latest strategy.
Second, latino voters have never turned out in mid terms. It would require an amazing political earthquake for this to change. Sure, Obama is attacking the Arizona law just to gain favor with this group. Still, these folks are still more likely to care about jobs when they vote. Indeed, the Obamacrat margin among hispanics is not large enough for it to make a difference unless the turnout is something like twice the rate of 2006.
Third, these turnout models ignore the difference in enthusiasm among whites. The whites who plan to vote for the GOP say that they are much more likely to vote than those who support the Obamacrats. In other words, the margin among whites who actually vote is going to higher than the one shown by the polls.
For these three reasons, the Obamacrats strategy will not work. Still, it is nice to see them panic to the point where they have come to this. They deserve it given the job that they have done.
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