Will Obama Flunk Out of The Electoral College?

In the last few weeks, there have been a number of articles appearing on politically oriented sites in which the "lock" that the Democrats have on certain states in the Electoral College is discussed. These have ranged from giving Obama over 240 "sure" electoral votes to limiting that number to only about 185. Since the number to win the presidency is 270, the point of the articles is to show how close Obama is to wrapping up re-election despite his present difficulties. What utter nonsense!

Four or five months ago, we were treated to a similar string of articles from many of the same pundits who explained that Obama was unbeatable. Republicans, we were told, were dissatisfied with their candidates and the shifting demographics of America made the Democrats a lock in the next election. Of course, events have now made clear that this view was nothing but propaganda masquerading as "analysis".

So let's look at the lock held by Obama and the Obamacrats on the Electoral College. Supposedly, Obama is sure to win every state in New England except for New Hampshire which will be in contention. Really? Just yesterday, Quinnipiac released a poll of voters in my state of Connecticut that puts the margin in an Obama - Romney race at 2%, well within the margin of error. That's right. Connecticut, a state where Democrats hold the governor's office, both senate seats, all five congressional districts, and both houses of the legislature, is too close to call in a race between Romney and Obama. That is hardly a lock. Of course, this is only one poll, but it makes the point very clear. Other than DC, there are no states that are beyond reach to the Republicans.

Without a doubt, the Democrats start with an advantage in many states. If, however, the national popular vote is anything like 53-47 in favor of the Republican, many of the states that the pundits have already declared for Obama will show red on the map. It is not beyond imagination that a Republican candidate could win over 45 of the states.

I realize that the opposite is true as well. If the economy improves dramatically while Obamacare drives down the cost of healthcare, the Democrats could win their own landslide. The reality, however, is that the Republican landslide could actually happen, while a Democrat landslide requires a miracle for them.