Demography as Destiny yet again

Reid Wilson writing in the National Journal has once again put forward the premise that changes in the size of various demographic groups make Obama's re-election likely. This is about the tenth article like this that has appeared in the liberal press in just the last week alone. It seems as if the liberal reporters keep writing this stuff to reassure each other that Obama will indeed win. Since the premise of the article is demonstrably false, I decided to write to Wilson to see if he would answer just a few simple questions. As a result, I sent him the following e-mail and I am awaiting his response which I will publish on receipt.

The e-mail:

Your piece in the National Journal discussing the growth of the Obama coalition numbers was interesting although it was umpteenth such article in the media in the last two weeks. It is interesting that the storyline has moved from “Obama is unbeatable” which was in vogue last May to “Obama has
different groups of states that will allow him to win the electoral college” which prevailed two months ago to the current “even if polling looks bad, the electorate has changed and this will save the presidency”. I suggest that you write another article in which you examine this latest story line further and answer these questions:

1) Will African Americans turn out in numbers as large as 2008 when they are trying to re-elect the president rather than electing the first black president?
2) Will the few African American conservatives leave the Obama coalition when history has already been made by having a black president? This could swing 3-5% of the black vote, but that would
still be a substantial cut in Obama’s margin.
3) Will Hispanics support Obama by the same margins as 2008 if the GOP vice presidential candidate is Marco Rubio, the first national Hispanic candidate? Don’t you think that in addition to giving the GOP a win in Florida that a Rubio candidacy would swing 15% of Hispanics in other
states to the GOP. Indeed, Rubio might cause an upswing in Hispanic turnout by those who want to participate in an historic election.
4) With the levels of support for Obama down among both college-educated and non-college-educated whites, why do you think that Obama can repeat his numbers from 2008 among these groups (or even come close?)
5) With the intensity measures still showing that the anti-Obama forces have a much higher level of interest in the election than the pro-Obama ones, what makes you think that the turnout patterns will move back to the 2008 model rather than the 2010 model. Remember that in
2004, the demography argument that you posit in your column was made in support of a John Kerry victory and we all know how that turned out.

Each of these questions is real and the “wrong” answer to even one of them is enough to completely undermine the validity of the main premise of your article. Discussing these points would make a great follow up article.