The last ten days have seen quite a number of events that indicate that there is a pending divorce between Jewish Americans and the Democrat party. While this development will not defeat Obama by itself, it will make a difference in the 2012 elections.
First, let's look at the important facts.
a) Jews are only about 2% of all the voters in the USA. Their percentage of the population is less than that, but Jews turn out for elections in numbers higher than essentially any other ethnic group.
b) Jews give more donations to politicians than most other ethnic groups.
c) Jewish voters are concentrated in big states like New York, Florida, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey. Particularly since some of these are swing states, the importance of the Jewish vote is once again magnified.
d) Jews have been a reliable part of the Democrat coalition since at least the Depression. Even as Jews have become more affluent, the tie to Democrats has remained strong. The late senator Moynihan used to say that Jews live like Episcopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans.
So why would anyone thing that the bonds between the Jews and the Democrats are fraying? We have to start with the recent special election in the ninth district of New York, Anthony Weiner's old seat, which was won by a Republican who attracted Jewish voters dismayed by Obama's treatment of Israel. While it is true that the Jews in this district are heavily orthodox and more likely to be conservative, the swing in the vote towards the Republican was nevertheless dramatic.
Now each day brings new items for the list. First, Obama actually had the nerve to tell an audience that he had done more for Israel than any other American president EVER. This kind of garbage will not play well with voters who do not like being lied to.
Second, the Ambassador to Belgium last week blamed anti-semitism in Europe among Muslims on the actions of Israel. Just imagine what would happen if the Israeli ambassador to the USA blamed racism in America on the positions taken by the NAACP. All hell would break loose.
Third, Hillary Clinton criticized Israel as insufficiently protective of women's rights because Israel allowed religious soldiers to leave a concert when a women's choir was about to sing. These soldiers were apparently following orthodox Jewish beliefs when they left. Within two days, however, Clinton met with representatives of Saudi Arabian groups that advocate stoning women for leaving home without a burkha and similar "transgressions". This Saudi group also advocates female genital mutilation. Clinton, however, was totally silent about these positions. Apparently they do not rise the the level of the heinous Israeli acts which let the soldiers leave a concert.
Fourth, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta blamed Israel for the lack of peace talks and told the Israelis to get back to the table. Panetta, of course, did not mention that the Palestinian leadership refuses to meet unless Israel agrees to certain unacceptable preconditions. Indeed, some of these preconditions are things that only exist because president Obama decided to inject himself in these negotiations and managed to screw them up royally.
The simple truth is that many Jewish Americans are uneasy with Obama and the Obamacrats. Indeed, today in the Politico there is a detailed discussion of infighting among Democrats and those on the left as to whether or not to support Israel in the future. As a result, Jewish Republicans are becoming much more commonplace. Today in Washington, the Republican Jewish Coalition held a candidate forum and every GOP candidate other than Ron Paul attended.
My guess is that 2012 will not mark a divorce between Jews and Democrats. It could, however, be the start of a trial separation that moves on to divorce in the years ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment