There was a huge push to promote a recent poll done for Fox that showed 51% of those questioned favoring impeachment. The poll has been criticized because it included 48% of self-described Democrats and only 12% independents, the first group being too large and the second too small. This plus the order and nature of the other questions seemed designed to give a result that was bad for President Trump. That's a dispute for others right now. There is other polling information, however, which can be read as indicating the public's view of the impeachment moves by House Democrats. This other data comes in the form of the generic congressional ballot. Periodically, polls are done in which the question is "If the election for Congress were today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?" [The order of the parties is reversed with each new person polled.] These polls give a general view by the public of its perception of the two parties.
The generic congressional polls have been running about 8-10 points in favor of the Democrats for the last half year. That is, however, until October after the impeachment storm started. In two polls just released, the Democrat lead has been cut to 3-4%. That's not the sort of move one customarily sees in these polls. It's a very large move towards the Republicans in Congress.
Nothing has happened in the last three weeks in Congress or the news other than impeachment which could account for this move. This poll also has the benefit of not including the name Trump in the question. Those who don't want to say they support the President but who actually do, can answer without having to mention the President.
The two polls in question were both done by rather liberal outfits. One, for example, was done for NPR. If this trend continues, it bodes quite ill for the Democrats. It's worth watching these numbers as they come out.
The generic congressional polls have been running about 8-10 points in favor of the Democrats for the last half year. That is, however, until October after the impeachment storm started. In two polls just released, the Democrat lead has been cut to 3-4%. That's not the sort of move one customarily sees in these polls. It's a very large move towards the Republicans in Congress.
Nothing has happened in the last three weeks in Congress or the news other than impeachment which could account for this move. This poll also has the benefit of not including the name Trump in the question. Those who don't want to say they support the President but who actually do, can answer without having to mention the President.
The two polls in question were both done by rather liberal outfits. One, for example, was done for NPR. If this trend continues, it bodes quite ill for the Democrats. It's worth watching these numbers as they come out.
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