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Thursday, October 24, 2019

The Polls Cannot Be Trusted

There are three polls out in the last two days that merit mentioning.

The first is the CNN poll of Democrats nationwide as to whom they would prefer as their 2020 nominee.  It shows Biden with 34%, Warren at 19 and Sanders at 16.

The second is the Quinipiac national poll on the same question.  It shows Warren at 28, Biden at 21 and Sanders at 15.  That puts Warren up 9, Biden down 13 and Sanders down 1 compared to CNN.

The third poll is the Economist/YouGov national poll on the same question.  That shows Biden 24, Warren 23 and Sanders 16.

These are three "respected" polling organizations, but clearly at least two (and maybe three) are incorrect.  There's no way that three samples of Democrats would give Biden 34, 21 and 24 percent.  These are not variations within the margin of error.  These are errors.

The same is true with the scores for Warren.  They too cannot be made to mesh.  They are wrong.

Sanders, however, gets basically the same score in all three polls.

I have always felt that Quinipiac polls are skewed to favor Democrats, and in particular left wing Democrats.  I've written about it many times in the past.  That could explain the above numbers, but most likely it is more than that.  These polls are inherently garbage.

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