Search This Blog

Monday, October 14, 2019

Why Act As If This Is A Surprise

The Kurdish militia in northern Syria has now allied itself with the Assad government so as to allow Syrian army forces to join in the fight against the Turks who have sent their army into Syria.  The media acts as if this is some sort of big surprise.  It isn't.

Let's go back five years or so.  When ISIS first burst onto the scene by taking a wide swath of territory in Syria and Iraq, president Obama pretended it was no big deal.  He called ISIS the "jayvee team" of terrorists and said they weren't important.  Then ISIS started mass killings of all those who weren't Sunni Muslims, in particular Yazidis, Christians, and Shiites.  They also distributed videos of these beheadings and Obama couldn't stand by any more.  Obama didn't want to upset his strategy of being a friend to Iran, however, by moving into Syria where the Assad regime was an Iranian client state.  As a result, Obama used the strategy of teaming up with the Kurdish militia in northern and eastern Syria.  This Kurdish militia (as opposed to the Kurds in Iraq) was on good terms with both Assad and Iran.  America was helping a friend of the Iranians.  No matter with whom the Kurdish militia was friends, of course, they fought ISIS valiantly.  With US help in the air and in intelligence, the Kurds pushed back ISIS.

Now, the Turks have crossed the border.  The Turks see the Kurdish militia as a terrorist group and have done so for decades, indeed many years before anyone had ever heard of ISIS.  They don't want territory controlled by the Kurdish militia on their border.

President Trump has withdrawn American forces in northern Syria so that they won't be caught in the fighting.  The Kurds are outgunned and need help.  It's no surprise that they went to Assad for that help.  Assad is no friend of the Turks.  He sees the current Turkish action as an invasion of Syria.  He is a friend of the Kurdish militia. 

It will be interesting to see if Syrian and Turkish forces actually clash in northern Syria.  It may well be that the Turks will take a strip of territory and then stop with a resulting confrontation of the two armies across a new line of demarcation.

It would have been much better if the USA had been able to stop the Turkish invasion through diplomacy.  We have a debt to the Kurds for their fight against ISIS.  Given that this was not achieved, none of what is happening now is a surprise, though.

No comments: