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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

The Experts Strike Again

In December of 2017, the tax cut legislation repealed the individual mandate that was part of Obamacare.  As a result of that change, starting in January of 2019, it was no longer required by federal law that Americans buy health insurance or face a penalty/tax. 

When this change was being debated, the "experts" came out and told the media that the deletion of the individual mandate would reduce the number of people covered by insurance by approximately 20 million.  The figures varied a bit, but the Democrats produced experts who put the loss of those with coverage at something between 18 million and 23 million with the average being around a loss of 20 million.

Well, it has been nearly a year since the individual mandate went away.  Did the number of people without coverage soar by anything like 20 million?  No, and it wasn't even close.  The latest estimate is that the number of people without coverage went up in 2019 by between 1 and 2 million people.  These are estimates, however, and the actual number could actually be unchanged.  That means that all those experts who predicted a massive increase in the uninsured once the individual mandate was repealed were WRONG.  In fact, they weren't just wrong, they were EXTREMELY WRONG.

It's also worth noting that in 2018, when the individual mandate was still in place, there was a bigger decline in the numbers with coverage.  That's correct, the number of people losing coverage in 2018 was HIGHER than it was in 2019 when the individual mandate went away.

The one important thing to take away from these numbers is just this:  when you see people called experts with regard to medical coverage and the government, remember that they really don't know very much.

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