As we watch 2019 end today, it's time to look forward to 2020. As a result, here are my fearless predictions for the coming year.
1. Let's start with the easiest prediction of all. President Trump will be acquitted by the Senate in an impeachment trial.
2. The second easiest prediction is that President Trump will be re-elected in November. He will win the popular vote and will increase his electoral vote margin over 2016.
3. The identity of the Democrat nominee is much hard to foresee. My prediction is that no candidate will get enough delegate votes to win on the first ballot. In the second ballot over 700 super-delegates will be able to vote. There will still not be a winner, however. By the third ballot, the delegates will start to panic because the party looks so indecisive and they will coalesce around a new candidate: Hillary Clinton, who will be the nominee.
4. In the Senate races in November, the GOP will pick up seats in Alabama and Michigan. The net change in all Senate races will be a pick up by the GOP of 3. That will mean a Republican majority of 56-42 with two independents after the election.
5. In the House races, the Democrats will lose at least 20 seats. The GOP will regain a narrow majority overall.
6. The American economy will continue to grow nicely throughout the year. There will be no recession.
7. The stock market will have two periods during the year when the averages decline by more than 5%, but we will not see a 10% correction during the year. By the end of 2020, the S&P average will be more than 10% higher than it currently is.
8. There will be an outbreak of major hostilities in the Middle East centered on Iran. This will lead to a temporary closure of the Persian Gulf as a trade route for crude oil. As a result, world oil production will plunge in the short term and oil prices will rise above 100 dollars per barrel again.
9. China and the USA will not only sign the phase 1 trade agreement in January, but they will reach agreement on a second phase agreement in September or October.
10. The UK will leave the EU under Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson will reach agreement with the EU on the final terms. The British will also reach agreement with the USA on a free trade agreement. The British economy will grow significantly more quickly than that of the EU.
11. Prince Charles will become the King of the UK.
12. After the next elections in Israel, the Likud party of Netanyahu and the Blue and White party of Gantz will form a national unity coalition government omitting all of the small parties.
13. Kim Jung Un (or Little Rocket Man if you prefer) will come to some deal with the USA regarding the North Korean nuclear program.
14. Fighting in Afghanistan will be pronouced to be over after a peace agreement is signed with the Taliban. Most US forces will withdraw.
15. Greta Thunberg, Time Magazines person of the year will fade into obscurity.
16. And here's one last personal favorite: The Super Bowl will be won by the Philadelphia Eagles in a momentous upset.
1. Let's start with the easiest prediction of all. President Trump will be acquitted by the Senate in an impeachment trial.
2. The second easiest prediction is that President Trump will be re-elected in November. He will win the popular vote and will increase his electoral vote margin over 2016.
3. The identity of the Democrat nominee is much hard to foresee. My prediction is that no candidate will get enough delegate votes to win on the first ballot. In the second ballot over 700 super-delegates will be able to vote. There will still not be a winner, however. By the third ballot, the delegates will start to panic because the party looks so indecisive and they will coalesce around a new candidate: Hillary Clinton, who will be the nominee.
4. In the Senate races in November, the GOP will pick up seats in Alabama and Michigan. The net change in all Senate races will be a pick up by the GOP of 3. That will mean a Republican majority of 56-42 with two independents after the election.
5. In the House races, the Democrats will lose at least 20 seats. The GOP will regain a narrow majority overall.
6. The American economy will continue to grow nicely throughout the year. There will be no recession.
7. The stock market will have two periods during the year when the averages decline by more than 5%, but we will not see a 10% correction during the year. By the end of 2020, the S&P average will be more than 10% higher than it currently is.
8. There will be an outbreak of major hostilities in the Middle East centered on Iran. This will lead to a temporary closure of the Persian Gulf as a trade route for crude oil. As a result, world oil production will plunge in the short term and oil prices will rise above 100 dollars per barrel again.
9. China and the USA will not only sign the phase 1 trade agreement in January, but they will reach agreement on a second phase agreement in September or October.
10. The UK will leave the EU under Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson will reach agreement with the EU on the final terms. The British will also reach agreement with the USA on a free trade agreement. The British economy will grow significantly more quickly than that of the EU.
11. Prince Charles will become the King of the UK.
12. After the next elections in Israel, the Likud party of Netanyahu and the Blue and White party of Gantz will form a national unity coalition government omitting all of the small parties.
13. Kim Jung Un (or Little Rocket Man if you prefer) will come to some deal with the USA regarding the North Korean nuclear program.
14. Fighting in Afghanistan will be pronouced to be over after a peace agreement is signed with the Taliban. Most US forces will withdraw.
15. Greta Thunberg, Time Magazines person of the year will fade into obscurity.
16. And here's one last personal favorite: The Super Bowl will be won by the Philadelphia Eagles in a momentous upset.
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