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Thursday, December 12, 2019

The Message Of the Polls

There are a great many polls published in the media that deal with the 2020 presidential election.  Most don't mean anything.  There's a new batch out, though, that carry a rather clear message.  Emerson released polls that asked Iowa voters who they support in head to head matchups for 2020.  Emerson has done this periodically so we can look back and see the trend over time.  It is very revealing.

President Trump is ahead of Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg by single digits.  Depending on the candidate, Trump gets somewhere between 49 and 51 percent.  This is almost exactly where he was six months ago when the polling began.  What has changed, however, is that Biden, Sanders and Warren are each down by about 6-7% in their scores over that time.  (Buttigieg wasn't even polled six months ago.)

Think about that.  Iowa has seen more candidate visits and TV ads by Democrats than any other state over the last six months.  Since the Iowa caucus is the first in the nation, all of the Democrat candidates have been scurrying around that state visiting cities, small towns and even individual farms.  The people of Iowa have had a really good chance to meet and to learn about these candidates.  And what has happened?  Over the last six months, more than one in ten of the people who used to support one of these Democrats against Trump have changed their minds and moved to undecided.  That happened despite the impeachment clown show put on by Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and the Democrats in DC.  It happened despite the endless bashing that Trump gets from the mainstream media.  And it happened in a state where, more than anywhere else, the true nature of the Democrat candidates and their plans for the country have been explained to the public.

The results show that at this point, voters are rejecting the Democrats.  Trump hasn't picked these voters up yet, but there's a long way to go until election day.

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