There is a new poll out this morning in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Along with Florida, Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states in the November election. The poll is by pollster Monmouth. It shows Biden leading Trump in PA by 49-46 late last week.
Now let's put this in context. The previous poll taken by Monmouth showed Biden ahead in PA by 52-42%. That's a reduction in Biden's margin from 10% to 3% which is within the margin of error. Even more important, the earlier poll was of Likely Voters and the one released today went back to Registered Voters. Normally, Democrats do better among Registered voters by 2-4% than they do among Likely Voters. Monmouth didn't report the numbers among Likely Voters, today though.
Why would Monmouth switch from Likely to Registered Voters? Normally, once September hits, the pollsters just all move to Likely Voters in an effort to come closer to the results. Monmouth, however, went the other direction. The pollster chose to use a less accurate measure that favors Democrats. Could it be that Monmouth didn't want to release a poll that showed Likely Voters favoring Trump or a tie? It sure seems like it.
No matter how you look at this poll, it shows that Trump has gained a great deal in PA. And that doesn't account for enthusiasm. When Mike Pence visited a small town near Wilkes-Barre this week, there were thousands of people who came out to see him. When Biden went to Pittsburgh to deliver a speech the other day, he drew a crowd of about 30 people. How many people in PA are fired up to vote for Biden? For that matter, how many people anywhere are itching to vote for Joe? Trump engenders enthusiasm among his supporters. They are going to vote for him no matter what. Biden just can't match that.
No comments:
Post a Comment