Polls show Biden with the lead, right? Old Joe is a certain winner, just like Hillary Clinton was in 2016, right?
The likely answer to those questions is "certainly not". As of now, Trump is much more likely to win for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:
1. The turnout by college students is going to collapse. This group votes heavily Democrat, but they can't make their voices heard if they don't vote. Normally, in September and October, there are busy efforts on college campuses by local Democrats to register these new voters and to get them to the polls. Turnout among students is usually lower than among older voters, but it is still significant. For example, Dane County Wisconsin which is the home of the University of Wisconsin had the highest percentage vote for Clinton in 2016 among all Wisconsin counties. That's right; Dane county had a bigger percentage for Hillary than Milwaukee county did. But the 40,000 students who are usually at U W, aren't all there right now because of restrictions due to the virus, and among those who are at campus, there are no gathering places where voting registrations can take place. Sure, there will be some students who register, but not as many as usual. Multiply this by 50 states and hundreds of campuses and the impact of fewer students voting becomes major. In close states, this will truly hurt Biden's efforts.
2. The Democrats are not running any in person get out the vote efforts. Because of the virus, the Biden campaign decided not to have people going door to door to ask for votes. This is a traditional method for getting out the vote, first by identifying who is supporting one's candidate and then returning right before or on election day to get the supporters to the polls. The door to door campaigners can also convince some voters to support their candidate. Biden and the Dems are trying to do this on line. It's not the same. When someone knocks on your door, most people answer the door. When someone sends you a political email, most people delete it without reading it. And if the political email asks for personal information from which the campaign could gather a supporters' list, many more people will worry that it is a scam and not give any info. This will have a major impact on election day. And if you doubt how big a difference there is between the campaigns, consider this: in Minnesota, Biden didn't start to have any local organizers or offices until the end of August. By that time, the Trump organization had already knocked on over one million doors in Minnesota.
The Dems are also relying on early voting and voting by mail to get an advantage. Traditionally, the Dems excel in getting early voters to the polls. That isn't true this year. Think, for example, of one of the biggest successes that the Dems have had with early voting. It's a program called "souls to the polls". The Democrats bring buses to line up outside of Black churches after services which then take the congregants to early voting. The Dems got literally hundreds of thousands (or more) votes in this way. But in 2020, there are no church services because of the COVID restrictions put in place by mostly Democrat governors. You can't get congregants to vote if there are no congregations. This applies also to early voting from events. You can't gather voters from state fairs, school football games, or the like if these events are either cancelled or happening without an audience due to COVID restrictions.
3. The Democrats argue that their voters will still vote by mail or show up at the polls, but this brings up the third big problem for the Dems. Simply put, there is no enthusiasm for Biden/Harris. When Biden leaves the bunker and ventures out, he speaks to empty rooms. The Dems say that the rooms are empty by design so as to promote social distancing. But consider the crowds along the way of the motorcades used by Biden to get to his destination. When President Trump appears in a town, there are always thousands of supporters lining the motorcade route. They wave signs and get excited as Trump drives by in his car. Nothing like that happens when Biden shows up. I have yet to see a crowd gathered to see a glimpse of Biden. They are not at the events and they are not outside. This lack of enthusiasm is even reflected in the polls that are reported. The President has much higher numbers of the voters supporting him who say that they are very enthusiastic about his candidacy than is the case with Biden's supporters. Just think if it rains in the Philadelphia metro area on election day. How many voters who support Biden are going to decide that they don't want to go out into the rain for a candidate that they don't care much about?
4. But, but, but the polls.... The Dems tell us that their guy is ahead in these polls. Here too, there are strange indicators that we have to look at. One important one is that minority voters are much friendly and more supportive of Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016. The President gets a job approval rating of almost 33% among Black voters. Hispanics in certain polls give Trump majority approval. Asian-Americans have given the President ratings of over 65% approval. To be fair, these are polls that rely on small samples (of course just like the basic head to head polls.) If Trump gets 20% of the Black vote and 45% of the Hispanic vote, Biden cannot win. Recent polling in Florida shows Biden losing the Hispanic vote to Trump. One of the likely Supreme Court nominees that Trump could name is a Cuban American from the Miami metro area. That nomination alone could lock in Florida for Trump. But aside from the nomination, the Dems are losing major ground with one of the main building blocks of their coalition: minorities.
5. While we are talking about the polls, we should also remember the "shy" Trump voters. It's not easy to use shy and Trump in the same sentence, but "shy Trump voters" are people who don't want to let anyone know that they support the President for fear of retribution. Remember if there are only 2% of the total number of voters who fit within this category, then Trump is actually leading in most of the battleground states.
6. Then there are the voter registration figures. Not all states have registration by party, but some of the battleground states do have this. In Pennsylvania, for example, the Democrats' lead among registered voters has been cut by about 250,000 voters since 2016. The GOP has also surged compared to the Dems among registrations in Florida and North Carolina and elsewhere. There are no battleground states where the Dems made meaningful gains. These are not polls. They are actual numbers from actual people. It seems like a safe bet that almost every new voter who registered as Republican this year is going to vote for Trump while those who registered as Democrats will likely vote for Biden. That's a pickup for Trump.
7. Then there are the intangibles. The Dems say that they have made enormous gains among white college educated suburban women. The polling certainly says that Biden is doing better among this group than Hillary did (which is surprising given that Hillary was a woman). Still, if there are any more execution type attacks on police (like Compton) or if there are any riots/attacks in suburbs, how many of these women will decide that safety is more important than style. How many will choose Trump at that point rather than Joe Biden whose VP candidate is still supporting funds to bail out the thugs, arsonists and rioters?
We still have a long way to go until this election is over. Anything can happen, and events that no one is anticipating could shake things up big time. Just a day ago, no one was anticipating that Justice Ginsburg would pass away. Who knows what's coming next? Will a vaccine be approved so that fear of the virus is diminished? Will the economy roar back? We know that the third quarter GDP figures are likely to show growth in the 30%-40% range. That's a figure that America has never seen the like of previously. Will job growth continue very strong? Will there be a sudden rise in COVID cases which will push the other way? We don't know.
The one thing that we do know, however, is that Biden right now is the likely loser. He knows this. His team knows this. If you doubt this, then remember just one thing: Joe hid in his basement in Delaware for four months and coasted along on his lead in the polls. Now, he is going out to read speeches off of teleprompters to empty rooms and to take a few pre-scripted questions. In other words, Biden has flipped the script of his campaign. If you wanted a sure sign that the Biden campaign understands that it has lost the lead, this is it. You know that Biden's team doesn't want him out there in public where he is one gaffe away from blowing the entire election. Still, they now put him out there. They know and they are trying desperately to change things.
No comments:
Post a Comment