Think back over the last four years with regard to America's policy in the Middle East.
First, we had President Trump move the US embassy in Israel to the actual Israeli capital, Jerusalem. The "experts" and the pundits all screamed that this would lead to rioting in the streets across the region, a loss of US influence with the Arab states, and an end to any movement towards peace in the Middle East. They were wrong. The embassy was moved, and none of the negatives occurred. The "experts" got it wrong. America could change a policy under which we only recognized a fiction that Tel Aviv was the real capital rather than the reality which was that since 1948, Israelis had made Jerusalem their capital.
Second, we had President Trump act again with regard to Israel. This time he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Israel captured this region from Syria in 1967 after the Syrians attacked Israel. Under international law, territory captured in a defensive war may be annexed by the victor and that is exactly what Israel did. America just recognized that reality. The "experts" went crazy again. So did the pundits. Trump was foreclosing an issue that could be negotiated as part of a peace deal between Israel and Syria, and that would kill any chances for peace in the region. It would also lead to riots in the streets, etc -- or at least so they said. Of course, there was essentially no reaction to the move. Indeed, if the Israelis ever negotiate with the government of Syria -- assuming that country finally gets a recognized government -- they can talk about the territory of the Golan if they want to. In the interim, however, that region is part of Israel and America has recognized that reality in accordance with international law.
Third, we had massive media and Democrat attacks as well as non-stop commentary by the "experts" on the death of Adnan Kashoggi in the Saudi embassy in Ankara, Turkey. The media/Dem complex wanted Trump to condemn the Saudi crown prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) for ordering that killing even though we didn't have clear proof that MBS had done that. Since MBS runs the Saudi kingdom, such a move would have put a major wedge into the US Saudi relationship at a time when President Trump was working to assemble a broad regional alliance against the Iranians. Trump didn't take the bait. He realized that American condemnation of MBS -- especially without convincing proof - for the Kashoggi killing would not bring any positive results for the USA. That reality led to his conduct. America makes deals with all sorts of foreign leaders. We made deals with the Chinese, and they have millions of Muslims in concentration camps. We made deals with the North Koreans and they have blood on their hands. We made deals with Putin, and he has certainly had people killed. As a result of this position taken by President Trump, our alliance with the Saudis was unaffected.
Fourth, we wiped out ISIS and killed terror leaders like al-Baghdadi of ISIS and Suleimani of Iran. Once again, the "experts" told everyone that this was madness. There would be terrible repercussions. There would be rioting in the streets. Etc. Even Joe Biden joined in this chorus. How dare we kill an Iranian "leader" (who also just happened to be the world's biggest supporter of terrorism). But President Trump recognized these murderers for what they actually were, terrorists who were gunning for Americans.
Fifth, President Trump put forward a peace plan for the Palestinian-Israeli disputes. It actually recognized reality. It didn't call for dismantling all of the so called settlements, most of which are just neighborhoods in or suburbs of Jerusalem where Jews now live. It also required the Palestinians to actually move towards peace. Not all concessions were going to come from Israel. The Palestinians would have to accept less than 100% of all their demands. The "experts" did their usual crazy dance. The Palestinians rejected the plan before they even got it, but there was no response from the rest of the Arab world.
This dose of reality has led to a change in the structure of the Middle East. Sunni Arab states understand that the USA no longer abides by the old fictions. Israel isn't going away. The Palestinians can't call all the shots by stamping their feet and shouting NO. Iran, not the Palestinian/Israeli dispute, is the source of most of the turmoil in the region. No amount of appeasement of the mullahs in Iran will change their plan for regional hegemony. These positions have forced the Arab states to likewise recognize reality. There is no longer an American umbrella that protects them from Iran no matter how they act. Simply put, reality has consequences, and if the reality is that these countries are not cooperating with the USA, then America will recognize that fact and act accordingly no matter what the old experts (who seem never to get it right) say.
The UAE made peace with Israel a month ago. The Saudis allowed Israeli commercial jets to fly over Saudi territory. Kosovo, a Muslim country in the Balkans, recognized Israel. And today, Bahrain is making peace with Israel. That's more movement towards peace in the Middle East than we've seen in 20 years. And with the momentum being gained, it is likely that more countries will make peace with Israel.
It's important to remember that the Palestinians have opposed and denounced each of these actions, but none of the other countries cared. The old Palestinian temper tantrums don't work any more. In the last week, at a summit of Arab nations, a resolution put forward by the Palestinians to denounce the UAE for making peace with Israel was defeated easily. That's about the clearest possible signal that the Palestinians can no longer call the shots for the region.
It's also important to keep in mind that Joe Biden says he will reverse this new American policy. He wants to reinstate the failed policy of appeasing Iran. After all, the experts tell him it will work -- even though it failed so miserably under Obama/Biden. He also wants to abandon Trump's plan for a peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Biden wants to go back to recognizing fictions rather than reality.
No one -- other than the "experts" -- think that such a policy by Biden would work. But that doesn't matter. If your policy calls for accepting fiction, then you can also accept the fiction that it is working. Of course, at some point, the other countries also understand that your policy is based upon fantasy, and they stop paying attention to you. All that Trump has accomplished here is threatened should Biden win.
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