Will Minorities Make The Majority?

 All through this century, Democrat pundits and political "experts" have told us that changing demographics in the USA make an eventual unbeatable Democrat majority a sure thing.  As an ever bigger share of the population was Black, Hispanic or Asian American, the Republicans -- who they told us could only carry white voters -- would fade into a regional party at best.  The federal government would be a permanently Democrat.

When Bush won in 2004, many of these experts announced that he would probably be the last Republican president.  When Obama won in 2008 with Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, we got a lot of "see, I told you so" from the same pundits.  Then in 2010, the GOP won the House.  In 2014, the GOP took the Senate  Then in 2016, President Trump was elected.  The same pundits told us that this was the last gasp of the Republicans because the numbers of minorities were still growing.  Many blamed the Democrats' loss on white racism -- the fear of losing control to minorities.  Of course, those same supposedly racist whites had Obama win two terms.

Now, we are hearing again about the inevitable Democrat victory based solely on demographics.  Someone should tell these pundits/experts that they don't have a clue.  President Trump (whom they falsely call a racist) has spent his whole term conducting outreach to the Black community.  As a result, Trump gets a job approval rating in the low 30% range from Black voters.  Remember that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the Black vote with 92% of the total.  In many recent polls, Trump is getting over 20% of the Black vote.  A switch like that on election day will guarantee a Trump victory.

But it's not just Blacks.  Hispanics are also swinging in many places behind Trump.  Recent polling in Florida shows that Cuban Americans (the biggest Hispanic bloc in Florida) support Trump over Biden by a 32% margin.  Statewide, Trump is polling about 12% higher than he did in 2016.  Those numbers, if replicated on election day, would guarantee Trump victory in Florida.

There are even those who argue that the BLM movement is an effort to drive Blacks back into the arms of the Democrats.  The rioters of BLM say that they are actually protesting racism rather than just looting stores and burning buildings.  For months, the Democrats supported those riots, even calling them "peaceful protests".  Biden and the Democrats placed a bet that by supporting the rioters/looters/thugs, they would win the loyalty of any wavering Blacks.  Needless to say, that was a losing bet.  People who saw their communities destroyed by BLM and Antifa were in no mood for the supposed "solidarity" coming from Biden and the rest of the Dems.  They wanted law and order, not chaos and clenched fists.  Indeed, by treating Blacks as predictable and angry, the Democrats pushed many of these Blacks away from the Dems and towards the GOP.

It would be poetic justice if Trump gets re-elected with a slightly smaller share of the white vote but with the margin of victory coming from a performance among minority voters much better than in 2016.  It would be the ultimate defeat for the Democrats' identity politics. Just because Harris is a woman does not guarantee the Dems the votes of all women.  Just because Harris is an Asian American does not guarantee the Dems the votes of all Asian Americans.  Just because Biden has dementia does not guarantee the Dems the votes of all victims of Alzheimers.