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Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Are We Moving Towards War With Iran?

During the Obama years, the policy of the USA was to appease Iran at all costs.  When Iranians manufactured IEDs and sent them into Iraq for use against US forces, America did nothing.  When Iran sent major weapons shipments to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and supported that uprising that overthrew the government, America did nothing.  When Iran sent troops and supplies to Syria to support Assad and his murderous thugs, the USA stood by and watched.  America under Obama even signed the JCPOA under which Iran is assured a nuclear weapon in a decade or so and nearly all the sanctions against Iran were ended.  This weakness in the face of Iranian moves has emboldened the Iranians to an amazing extent.  Iran has been diligently testing missiles despite UN Security Council resolutions that prohibit such work.  Iran has been attempting to secure a land route from Teheran to Damascus through areas that are heavily Sunni.  Iran has been supporting terrorists like Hezbollah and using such groups to take control of Lebanon.  Iran has been building military bases inside Syria close to the Israeli border.  And now, Iran has had its proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, fire an Iranian built missile at the Saudi capital of Riyadh.  The missile was shot down, but the point is clear:  Iran is taking aim at the Saudis in the hope of forcing that kingdom to back down and lose face.

If you put all this together, you see that Iran now believes itself to be secure in its position and the strongest power in the region.  As a result, we have the phenomenon of Iranian expansionism.  Iran seeks total hegemony in the Middle East.  Iran wants control of the region's oil.  Iran believes that America will do nothing to stop its efforts.  Decades ago, the Chinese derided the USA as a "paper tiger", a country that spoke strongly but acted meekly.  Iran calls America the "great Satan", but the rulers in Teheran have come to believe that America really is a paper tiger.  The Obama years taught them that truth.

This is an extremely dangerous situation.  Iran thinks that it can do as it pleases.  It has patrol boats that harass American naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.  The Iranians expect no response when they launch missile attacks on the Saudis.  Sooner, rather than later, there will be a direct confrontation between America or our allies and Iran.  If the Iranians have come to believe that the USA will back down, it could easily lead to war.

Much of America's politicians and media are particularly ignorant to this impending threat.  For example, not long ago, President Trump said that he could not certify Iranian compliance with the JCPOA.  This was not surprising since the Iranians refuse to allow inspectors onto military bases where nuclear arms production could be taking place.  The predominant response from Democrats and the media was to denounce President Trump rather than to examine the real issue which is Iranian obstructionism in connection with the JCPOA.  These people were more concerned with trying to undermine President Trump than in safeguarding the interests of the USA.  The Iranians are not oblivious to these events.  They understand that America is divided, even when it comes to Iranian aggression. 

War with Iran would not be a happy outcome for anyone.  America does not need another conflict.  Americans do not want another conflict.  Unless something changes soon, however, that seems to be what we will get.

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