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Saturday, November 4, 2017

Predictions

On Tuesday, the voters in Virginia will go to the polls to select a governor and some other offices.  Virginia has become a mostly Democrat state of late.  It voted twice for Obama and then for Hillary.  The current governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, is quite popular but cannot run for re-election due to term limits.  If there really is a major backlash against the GOP and President Trump as the media would have you believe Virginia ought to select another Democrat as governor.  That is especially because so many of the voters in northern Virginia work in the federal bureaucracy.  My prediction, however, is the Ed Gillespie, the Republican will win the race.  The Democrat, Northam, has gotten caught up in racism and dirty campaigning of a sort Virginia rarely sees. 

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, we are likely to see the Democrat win.  Jersey is a bigger state than Virginia, but in this moment, the change in party is less important than it would be in Virginia.  Chris Christie, the current governor, is extremely unpopular in the state.  He has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the USA.  The Republican candidate is the lieutenant governor under Christie, so she has the weight of Christie hanging around her neck (and we all know how much weight that is.)  Her campaign was doomed by the Christie effect from the start.  On top of this, NJ is a usually Democrat state so the Dems victory there doesn't indicate much of anything.

Then there's the mayoral race in New York City.  DeBlasio will win re-election even though he has been a terrible mayor.  There's just no way that the Republican can pull off a win in NYC these days, even when facing a mayor with a poor approval rating and major corruption scandals.

In a month, we have the Alabama senate race.  Moore, the Republican is safely ahead and will win by double digits.  A Republican win in Alabama is like a Democrat win in New York City.  Both are completely to be expected.

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