There's a Gravis poll out today on the senate race in New Jersey. It shows that in the contest between Democrat incumbent Bob Menendez and Republican challenger Bob Hugin, Menendez is ahead 43% to 41% with 16% undecided. This is HUGE. We are only four months from the election, and the incumbent Democrat is only getting 43% of the vote. That's a prescription for disaster for Menendez. After all, he's running against a GOP candidate that most people in New Jersey don't really know. That means that the people of New Jersey don't really like Menendez. If Hugin can run a reasonably good campaign and show himself to be a decent human being that people like, he will win the seat.
Obviously, the problem for Menendez is that he was tried for corruption and only escaped prison when the trial ended with a hung jury. This trial is influencing the voters by a rather large majority according to the poll.
There's some other items of interest in this poll. For example, Menendez is losing among Hispanics. Remember Menendez is the first Hispanic senator from New Jersey, but he's still behind.
Prior to this poll, the GOP looked to be in a somewhat good position to retain control of the Senate this year. In fact, it looked most likely that there would be a GOP pickup of a few seats. If the New Jersey seat is actually in play (as this poll indicates), there could be a much larger GOP success in November. New Jersey is a very blue state which has been rated as a "likely" Democrat victory until today.
We will have to watch future polling in New Jersey to see if the Gravis poll was just a fluke or if Menendez is on his way out of office.
Obviously, the problem for Menendez is that he was tried for corruption and only escaped prison when the trial ended with a hung jury. This trial is influencing the voters by a rather large majority according to the poll.
There's some other items of interest in this poll. For example, Menendez is losing among Hispanics. Remember Menendez is the first Hispanic senator from New Jersey, but he's still behind.
Prior to this poll, the GOP looked to be in a somewhat good position to retain control of the Senate this year. In fact, it looked most likely that there would be a GOP pickup of a few seats. If the New Jersey seat is actually in play (as this poll indicates), there could be a much larger GOP success in November. New Jersey is a very blue state which has been rated as a "likely" Democrat victory until today.
We will have to watch future polling in New Jersey to see if the Gravis poll was just a fluke or if Menendez is on his way out of office.
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