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Friday, July 13, 2018

Understanding Trump and NATO

Now that the NATO meeting is over and President Trump is in Britain, the pundits are pouring out their "insights" into what happened with the Atlantic Alliance.  For the most part, these gurus of diplomacy are criticizing the President for how the NATO meeting went.  The mantra is that Trump is "undermining and weakening NATO".  Some of the sillier pundits even claim that Trump is helping out Putin and Russia.  What they all seem to miss is something that anyone who has watched President Trump ought to know:  Trump is bringing reality back to NATO just as he has done in many other areas of foreign policy.

Let's start with some facts about which everyone can agree.

1.  When Trump took office in 2017, only five of the nearly 30 NATO countries were spending 2% of GDP on defense, something that each committed to do in the NATO treaty.  By contrast, the USA was spending 4% of GDP on defense.  The only other large NATO country to meet the 2% goal was the United Kingdom.
2.  American presidents have raised the failure of NATO countries to meet this treaty obligation in the past.  For example, president Obama raised the point in a low key way during his two terms in office.  The response of the other NATO countries was to smile and ignore the USA.  In fact, the number of countries meeting the 2% goal declined.
3.  The ability of most NATO countries to defend themselves is at a very low ebb.  As of today, the German air force has only seven planes that are fully operational.  To put that in context, the Assad regime in Syria has over 20 planes in that condition, and the Assad forces have been battered by years of fighting in the civil war in that country.

In this situation, it is rather clear that the NATO countries are relying on the US military to defend them.  America is the only country with the power to stop an attack, and America is paying the costs of maintaining that power.

So what has President Trump done?  He told the truth.  He told the NATO leaders that if they didn't honor their obligations to maintain their defense forces, the US would not accept the obligation to defend them.  America is their ally, not their private security force.  We know the mantra that "America is not the policeman of the world", and that is really all that Trump said.  Even worse (according to the pundits), the President told the NATO leaders that he would not accept a "goal" to meet the defense requirements by 2024 (when nearly all of them would be out of office.)  There would be no acceptance of giving lip service to defense while ignoring it in actual fact.  Trump told the NATO leaders to meet the commitments they made to defense or America would no longer defend them.

How undiplomatic!  Trump did something that Obama would never have dreamed of doing.  He clearly expressed the position of the USA and demanded that our allies meet their commitments.  He ignored the diplomatic niceties in which he discussed an issue but never demanded that something actually be done.

By the end of the NATO meeting, of course, the leaders of our allies committed to meeting the required 2% defense spending level.  The expectation is that this year alone, our allies will raise their defense spending by nearly $40 billion.  That translates into a lot of troops and many more operational weapons systems.  It means that Europe will be able to participate meaningfully in its own defense.

NATO has been strengthened by a dose of reality.  All those additional troops and weapons will make NATO forces stronger.  That's something that Putin and Russia cannot miss.  This is a  big plus for the alliance and a big negative for the Russians.  But hey, the pundits are worried about proper diplomatic style.  How you say something is so much more important to them than what you say and so much more important that what actually gets accomplished.  These pundits are slaves to the old Obama ways where stylish words are everything but accomplishments don't matter.

 

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