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Sunday, July 22, 2018

Now Where Have I Heard This Before?

In Teheran, president Rouhani of Iran warned the USA and President Trump that a war between the USA and Iran would be "the mother of all wars."  Seriously, that what Rouhani said.  One has to wonder if Rouhani somehow missed it when Saddam Hussein, then the dictator in Iraq, warned president Bush that a war between the USA and Iraq would be the "mother of all battles".  That didn't end too well for Saddam Hussein.  He goaded the US into war by refusing to admit that he did not have weapons of mass destruction (nukes in that case).  His army collapsed in a few weeks.  Saddam Hussein ended up hiding for a while, only to then be captured and executed by the new Iraqi government.

So the Iranian president is predicting the mother of all wars.  Let's see, how would that go?

1.  American air power would erase all Iranian anti-aircraft defenses.  That would not take very long assuming that the Russians would not actively side with Iran.  Even with Russian help, the Iranian air defenses would be quickly destroyed by American air power.

2.  Once the air defenses are gone, the Iranian nuclear sites will be subjected to round the clock attack until they are completely destroyed.  There could also be operations by special forces to attack these sites on the ground. 

3.  American forces would then take out essentially all of the anti-ship capabilities of the Iranian forces.  This would free up the Persian Gulf for the passage of oil-related products.  There would be a disruption in world oil flows until the waterway was safe, but it shouldn't be for too long a period.

4.  At this point, if the Iranian people had not overthrown the government themselves, American troops would be required to enter Iran on the ground.  Iran has strong ground forces, but there is a real question just how long those forces could last if hit with a sustained air attack.

Nothing is certain in a war.  A victory for American forces over the Iranians, however, is about as close to that as one can come.

The Iranian forces would try to attack the USA.  Most likely that would come in the form of cyber warfare or sabotage.  Iran might also launch attacks on Israel or on the oil fields in Saudi Arabia or Iraq just to try to increase pressure for a cease fire.  It's doubtful that would work.

The truth is that from Iran's perspective, Rouhani should have described such a war as an Iranian suicide mission.  (or at least the mother-in-law of all wars.)

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