Daniels is out

In a decision which surprised me, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels decided not to run for president. The reason given by Daniels is the stress that a presidential run would put on his family. That is really sad. Daniels would have made a good candidate in my opinion. He has experience, a proven record of being able to handle difficult issues with tact and poise and a lack of the imperial cult of personality that afflicts Obama. He might have brought some common sense back to Washington.

With Daniels out the media is now annointing Romney as the front runner. This is bogus. Romney is well known by the GOP primary electorate and he is polling in low double digits. That does not make him the front runner; it makes him the least objectionable candidate with high name recognition. The media seems to be confusing fund raising with political appeal.

Daniels departure in fact does more to promote the candidacy of Tim Pawlenty than that of any other candidate. Pawlenty will now occupy the more moderate side of the conservative area essentially alone. Romney is stuck with his reputation for changing views with the prevailing political winds. He will not be invited to the Tea Party. Gingrich has managed to destroy any chance he had for the nomination in a single week. Santorum, Johnson and Paul are in the weird fringe; they cannot win a general election and that means that they cannot win the nomination. Palin has made some additional noises about running, but I still do not believe she will run. Further, she also cannot win, so I doubt she will be nominated. Bachmann will probably run, and she will occupy the most conservative side of the conservative area. She has a chance for the nomination. She can win in Iowa and South Carolina, two of the first three battles. Still, I do not see her winning in Florida or any of the large states that follow in short order after that. Huntsman is toying with getting in, and he will probably do so. Here's a point that I never thought I would make: Huntsman will split the Mormon vote with Romney. Seriously, however, it is hard to believe that a man that most thought too liberal in 2009 will now take the nomination after having been part of the Obama administration for two years. That leaves Cain. Strangely, he may vault over the others and become a true contender. Republicans normally go with experience, and Cain has none in government. But this may be the year when things change.

With all of this swirling around, the pressure on Chris Christie to run has increased. The same is true with regard to Rick Perry and Jeb Bush. It would not surprise me if six months from now one or all of these folks were in the race. It may depend to a great extent on who is leading the pack at that time.