Search This Blog

Monday, May 16, 2011

So who are the GOP candidates?

With all of the recent news, it is worth taking a look at who is in the GOP race for president, who is likely still to get in and what the prospects for each candidate are.

First we have a group that I call the retreads. These are folks who have run before and are trying again. Number one on this list is Mitt Romney. Simply put, Romney has no chance to get nominated. As late as this past weekend, Romney is still defending Romneycare, the healthcare law he signed in Massachusetts that is similar to Obamacare in many respects. The GOP primary voters will never accept this, particularly from a candidate that they did not much like last time around.

Next among the retreads is newt Gingrich. he has now put his foot so far inito his mouth that it is coming out... well, you get the picture. Gingrich has no chance for the nomination.

Next is Sarah Palin. I do not believe that Governor Palin will run. If she does run, however, she will have to hire five large trucks just to carry all the baggage that she brings with her. Indeed, since she quit the governor's post, it has seemed to me that her chances were zero.

Ron Paul also makes it into the retreads. In fairness, Paul should have his own category for candidates who live in another dimension and only visit Earth occasionally. Paul has a small but loyal following. He has no chance at the nomination.

The last of the retreads is Rudy Giuliani who has made a few noises about running. While I like Rudy, he should stay out of the race since he has no chance.

The next category is the "new faces". First in this group is former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty is not a great orator and his charisma is basically non-existent. He does have a good record in Minnesota and is a reliable conservative. He is the first candidate on the list who actually has a chance to get nominated. On the other hand, unless he wins in one of the early states, Pawlenty will just drift off into the void.

Michele Bachmann is another new face. Bachmann's problem is that she seems incapable of saying thins in a way where they do not seem like strident, in-your-face stuff. A number of primary voters will look for red meat to thrown their way and Bachmann will oblige. I doubt if there are enough of those voters to get her on the ticket, however.

Herman Cain is another new face. Normally, I would write him off due to lack of experience. Republicans, unlike Democrats, actually want a president to have relevant experience. Cain's performance in the first debate, however, was strong enough to make me wait to see how he does in the future before puttinig him in the sure loser category.

Rick Santorum is a new face and a sure loser rolled into one. When Santorum lost his last race in Pennsylvania, it was a landslide against him. That pretty much tells you all that you need to know about his political skills.

Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana is the next new face. He has a good record in Indiana and a wealth of experience. He seems to have a lot of political skills as his past big victories show. On the down side, however, Rush Limbaugh seems to hate him. Of course, Limbaugh also disliked McCain last time and that did not stop him from getting the nomination. Still, haveing Limbaugh as a adversary is not a good way to get the GOP nomination. It is important to note, however, that the Democrats and liberal media seem to be trying really hard to discredit Daniels. That tells me that they fear him. He has a chance to get the nomination if he runs.

John Huntsman is another new face in the mix. A former governor of Utah and ambassador to China, Huntsman is an unknown. Indeed, if you said "who?" when I mentioned Huntsman, you proved this point. While stranger things have happened, a Huntsman nomination seemed highly improbable.

The last of the new faces is former governor Johnson of New Mexico. Somehow i doubt that his plan to legalize drugs will go over well with the GOP base.

The last category consists of thos not in the race who might get drafted.

First on this list is Chris Christie of New Jersey. Because of his plain spoken leadership on fiscal matters, Christie has become a favorite of many in the GOP. He has taken himself out of the running and I do not believe that he will ever get back into the fray.

Paul Ryan is another possible draft pick. Ryan is the intellectual leader of the House GOP. He says that he is considering a run for Herb Kohl's senate seat but not the presidency. i doubt that he will change his mind.

Jeb Bush is another draft choice. He has great credentials, but he also has that pesky last name. I doubt he will get in it.

That leaves governor Perry of Texas. I have not heard of anyone outside Texas who wants him to run. He is a long shot even for a long shot.

No comments: