Will Bin Laden's death help Obama win re-election?

It may seem strange, but the death of Osama Bin Laden should have little impact on the 2012 campaign. In the hours since the killing of the master terrorist by US forces was announced, the media types have wasted little time in annointing Obama as the great leader who was able to pull this thing off. Of course, Obama had little to do with the actual event other than allowing it to go forward. It is the brave men who carried out the assault and those who obtained the needed intelligence to whom the real praise goes. Nevertheless, Obama will rightfully garner credit for being in charge when the shooting actually took place. By the 2012 election, however, this whole episode will be of little importance. The issue for 2012 will not be the capture of Bin Laden, but the performance of the US economy. Think back to the historical precedents. In 1992, Gearge H.W.Bush had come off of the victory in the Gulf War in early 1991. That victory was the a great military triumph for the USA. Bush had been heavily involved in creating the coalition that pushed the Iraqis out of Kuwait. There was no question that Bush and his team deserved high praise for their work in that regard. Then, in 1992 when the economy was shaky, Bush was voted out by a large margin. Another relevant example comes from Britain in 1945. After victory was achieved in Europe, the Brits voted Winston Churchill and his Tory party out of office in favor of Labor. Churchill had just successfully led the UK through the darkest hours of its existence and had pushed the country on to victory over Germany. At that point, war with Japan was continuing but the Brits did not vote based upon past success; they wanted a new economic policy and got it with labor.

By November of 2012, there may be new terror attacks against America. I hope and pray that such is not the case, but realism requires us to consider the possibility. If there have been any serious attacks, Obama may be hurt politically. On the other hand, if there are no attacks, there will be little benefit. Focus will remain on the economy.