GOP about to call the bluff of the Democrats

If the latest news accounts are correct, the House Republicans are about to call the bluff of the Democrats and president Obama. Byron York is reporting that the House Republican leadership will present a bill that will lift the debt ceiling in two parts. First, there will be an increase in the ceiling of about a trillion dollars which will be accompanied by spending cuts in the same amount. These cuts will come right off of the agreed list developed during the Biden led talks. It would be nearly impossible for anyone to argue against these cuts now since all sides have already agreed to them. Second, the Republican plan calls for establishment of a commission (composed of congressmen and senators) to develop other reductions in the deficit through further spending cuts, modifications to entitlement programs or tax simplification with marginal rate reductions. These would then be presented to Congress for approval on an up/down vote with debt ceiling increases of the same size. Prbably, this vote would come next spring.

So why is this calling the bluff of the Democrats? President Obama has said over and over that he will veto any short term increase in the debt ceiling. Harry Reid has also said that the Democrats want a longer term deal. The GOP plan gives everyone a clear path to increasing the debt ceiling as required, but it will not be long term (since a second vote will be needed). Will Obama actually veto a plan that prevents the chaos he has been predicting if the debt ceiling is not raised? I doubt it; it would be suicidal for his re-election.

What if Obama were to argue that the plan is not fair since there are no tax increases? That too is a losing argument since the plan has the commission looking at potential tax changes. In other words, Obama is boxed in and will, most likely, support this deal.