In 2008, the strongest age group supporting president Obama was those under 30. Young voters who had only known easy times voted the way that they had been taught by America's liberal educational establishment. There was no known difference between the ivory tower view and the reality that these folks saw. Then came the actual fact of the Obama administration and the three hard years of job insecurity or actual unemployment that have ensued. College students who expected the world to be given to them on a platter after graduation struggled to find work. People without college degrees found the struggle to find work that much harder. Even those with jobs spent the last few years watching friends look unsuccessfully for jobs while themselves worrying about keeping their jobs. Suddenly, it became clear that the world is a tough place and that prosperity is not a birth-right.
The net result of all of this has been a strong shift by young Americans away from the Obama and the Obamacrats. The latest Pew poll shows this in striking fashion. According to the poll, whites under the age of 30 have shifted 11% towards identification as Republicans. Pay close attention to what I just said. This is not a shift about a particular candidate or even a slate of candidates. The shift has moved 11% of this group from being self-identified Democrats to being Republicans. In polling terms, this is not a move; it is an earthquake.
Obama won in 2008 due to higher turnout among minority voters and youth. If, in 2012 the youth of America favor the Republicans, that takes away from Obama the one area where he could have increased his results over 2008. African American turnout as a percentage of all voters is likely to decline in 2012 over the level reached in the euphoria about the first black president. Even a 5% decline is a blow to Obama since he gets well over 90% of these votes. Hispanic population has risen faster than the population as a whole in the last four years, but it is unlikely that the voter percentage of Hispanics will rise. Indeed, if the GOP names Marco Rubio as the first national Hispanic candidate (for vice-president), there could be a massive swing by Hispanics towards the GOP. All that is left for Obama is the youth vote, and that seems to have slipped away.
Much can happen between now and election day to change all of these numbers. One thing is certain, however. Right now, things are looking bleak for the president. I, for one, hope there is no change.
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