The White House announced that "all options are on the table" in response to the North Korean missile shot over Japan. Really? No they are not. We're not going to war over this. We're not going to blockade North Korea's ports. We're not going to announce a no fly zone over North Korea. We might send Dennis Rodman back to visit Kim Jung Un, but what would that accomplish?
The truth is that the USA is not going to respond to the NK's missile with a whole host of options. We are going to go for more sanctions, more discussions with China, and the like. So if that's the case, why does the White House bother to announce the "all options" language. It's not for the NK's. They already have figured out that they can do just about anything without getting a military response. Nope, it's for the Chinese. North Korea is their client, a country wholly dependent on Beijing for staying alive. Even the North Korean military could not function without Chinese assistance since over 90% of North Korea's oil and gasoline comes from China. Were that cut off, the NK forces would be in a major bind. Washington wants the Chinese to wonder if the USA will actually respond militarily to the NK's. In that regard, President Trump's uncertain nature is a big plus. Trump is unpredictable, and that is something that the Chinese fear. Indeed, China has now gone farther than ever before in trying to rein in the NK's. It voted for major sanctions in the UN Security Council and it says that it will actually enforce those sanctions. The Chinese no doubt thought that they had managed to put themselves in a position in which they could meet the demands of President Trump while not squeezing the NK's too much.
Now, however, Kim Jung Un has ruined that Chinese calculation by shooting a missile over Japan. The Chinese know that Kim did this intentionally. Not only did that missile act as a slap in the face to the USA and South Korea, it was also Kim telling the Chinese that he, not they, is in charge of North Korea. This may lead China to cooperate in further sanctions. Hopefully, it will.
The real question in the short term is whether or not the NK's will actually attack some South Korean outpost or ship. That's the next step up the ladder of escalation. If that happens, the White House will no doubt announce that all options are be on the table, but in such event, they really might be.
The truth is that the USA is not going to respond to the NK's missile with a whole host of options. We are going to go for more sanctions, more discussions with China, and the like. So if that's the case, why does the White House bother to announce the "all options" language. It's not for the NK's. They already have figured out that they can do just about anything without getting a military response. Nope, it's for the Chinese. North Korea is their client, a country wholly dependent on Beijing for staying alive. Even the North Korean military could not function without Chinese assistance since over 90% of North Korea's oil and gasoline comes from China. Were that cut off, the NK forces would be in a major bind. Washington wants the Chinese to wonder if the USA will actually respond militarily to the NK's. In that regard, President Trump's uncertain nature is a big plus. Trump is unpredictable, and that is something that the Chinese fear. Indeed, China has now gone farther than ever before in trying to rein in the NK's. It voted for major sanctions in the UN Security Council and it says that it will actually enforce those sanctions. The Chinese no doubt thought that they had managed to put themselves in a position in which they could meet the demands of President Trump while not squeezing the NK's too much.
Now, however, Kim Jung Un has ruined that Chinese calculation by shooting a missile over Japan. The Chinese know that Kim did this intentionally. Not only did that missile act as a slap in the face to the USA and South Korea, it was also Kim telling the Chinese that he, not they, is in charge of North Korea. This may lead China to cooperate in further sanctions. Hopefully, it will.
The real question in the short term is whether or not the NK's will actually attack some South Korean outpost or ship. That's the next step up the ladder of escalation. If that happens, the White House will no doubt announce that all options are be on the table, but in such event, they really might be.
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