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Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The 3% Solution

When he took office, President Trump said that his goal was to get US economic growth back to 3% per year.  The response from the mainstream media and the Democrats was unanimous; they said that a 3% growth rate was "unrealistic" because the 2% or lower of the Obama years was the "new normal."  They explained that slowing population growth and declining productivity growth doomed America to the stagnant sort of growth we experienced under Obama.  They also condemned President Trump for raising expectations of quicker growth while knowing full well that such growth could not be achieved.

This morning, the government came out with the most recent estimate of the growth rate in the second quarter of this year.  It was....you guessed it....3%.  That's right, the same 3% that was unrealistic and unachievable was what the country managed during the second quarter according to the latest government stats. 

So did the media pundits and "experts" announce that they had been wrong?  Did they explain why they were so wrong so soon?  Of course not.  There's been very little coverage of the higher growth rate achieved by the economy.  To the extent I have seen any coverage, it has centered mostly on claims that this faster growth rate is really the result of Obama's policies rather than Trump's.  Of course, there's been no explanation why Obama's policies failed so miserably for eight years and only began to finally work once Trump took office.

To be fair, we are talking about only one quarter.  Further, the second quarter has been growing more rapidly than the first for a number of years now.  Most likely, there is a flaw in the way the government measures growth which makes Q2 look better and Q1 worse.  Nevertheless, we did hit 3% growth, and it looks like the economy is continuing to accelerate.  The latest estimates by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (known for making accurate predictions) for Q3 have the growth rate coming in at something like 4%.

The real truth is that the US economy can easily grow at more than 3% so long as it is unleashed from unnecessary government regulations.  Growth can be even faster if taxes, particularly business taxes, get cut.  This truth flies in the face of leftist/Democrat dogma that only the government can manage economic growth and that we need more, not less, government interference with private industry.  That dogma is in the process of being shown once again to be faulty.

It's important to keep all this in mind as the push begins for tax reform. President Trump spoke on the subject today in Missouri.  The American people need to make Congress understand how important a reduction of business taxes and general tax reform really is.  We need the millions of new jobs that economic growth will bring.  We need the higher wages that will rise with the higher GDP.  We need to have more people who can provide for themselves by working rather than who are stuck in the terrible trap of government welfare programs.  Tell your congressman.  Tell your senator.  They need to vote for tax reform which contains clear tax cuts.  If they do, the economy will grow, the country will become much more prosperous, and even with lower tax rates, government revenues will rise.

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