There are reports today of a missile strike that hit an airbase near the city of Homs in Syria. The Syrians first blamed the USA, but then the Pentagon denied having anything to do with the strike. At that point, Syria and Russia blamed Israel for the strike. Following its usual policy, Israel would neither confirm nor deny involvement in the strike. For some reason, France also denied involvement, but no one had claimed that the French had attacked. The details of the attack are sketchy, although we do know that much of the airbase was destroyed. We also know that 14 soldiers are known dead and that they are described as including Iranians and other nationalities. Normally, Syrian sources us the phrase "other nationalities" to indicate fighters from the terrorists Hezbollah of Lebanon or the Shiite militias from Iraq. It does not normally mean Russians.
The identity of the dead tells us much about the reason for the attack. Israel has long had a policy under which it will not accept the presence of Iranian bases in Syria near to Israel, and it particularly will not accept bases used for the transshipment of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon where they can be used against Israel. Over the last year, Iran has been building a number of bases in Syria, many as adjuncts to Syrian (Assad) military bases. Most likely, it was one of these Iranian bases that was hit. The Syrians and Russians now say that two Israeli jets flew over Lebanon and launched eight missiles at the base in Syria. The Syrians claim that they shot down five of the eight but that three got through and hit the base. That claim would normally be meaningless since the Assad forces traditionally lie about shooting down planes and missiles in order to avoid the embarrassment of being totally ineffectual in their air defense. Recently, the Syrians actually shot down and Israeli jet and it was the first time in 20 years that an Israeli jet had been hit. Of course, the claim of shooting down five missiles was also made by the Russians, but they may have been just repeating what the Syrians said. If the Syrians actually shot down five missiles, it would mean a major leap forward for the Syrian air defense system. That's extremely unlikely. After the recent shooting down of the Israeli jet mentioned above, Israeli jets retaliated and took out roughly half of the Syrian air defense systems in southeastern Syria in a few hours. There's essentially no way their systems could have been rebuilt in such a rapid way.
So what effect will the Israeli strike have? Will it mean that the USA will not take action because of the chemical weapons attack launched by Assad? I doubt it. President Trump will not likely accept an attack on an Iranian base as punishment enough for Assad. Will it mean that the USA has to stay in Syria longer than previously thought. Again, the answer is no. The site of the attack may be Syria, but the combatants appear to be Iran and Israel. Will the attack stop the construction of bases by Iran in Syria. Again the answer is no. The Iranians seem prepared to accept casualties in their ongoing move to try to take total control of Syria through their proxy, Assad. They won't mind a few more casualties from this Israeli attack. The only likely effect is that the weapons stored on the base were likely destroyed by Israel. That is one huge cache of weapons that Hezbollah won't have. In addition, Iran may have to be a bit more cautious in moving weapons across Syria to Hezbollah. The attack is just one more move in an ongoing war.
Notice that I did not talk about Iranian, Syrian or Russian retaliation for the attack. Syria doesn't have the ability to retaliate without getting drubbed by the Israelis in response. Russia could take action, but the Israelis and Russians seem to have reached a consensus in which Russia agrees that it will not interfere with Israeli attempts to stop Iranian moves in Syria. Remember, this was not a Russian base and no Russian troops were injured. So that leaves Iran. Will there be a direct attack on Israel or Israeli interests in response? It's possible, but unlikely. Iran knows that Israel has moved closer to both Egypt and Saudi Arabia as all three nations confront the threat from Iran. Indeed, Israel's attack on the Iranian base has probably been quietly cheered in Cairo and Riyadh. If there is a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, that would likely push the Israel cooperation with the Saudis and Egyptians to new and higher levels. That is exactly what the Iranians would like to avoid.
The identity of the dead tells us much about the reason for the attack. Israel has long had a policy under which it will not accept the presence of Iranian bases in Syria near to Israel, and it particularly will not accept bases used for the transshipment of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon where they can be used against Israel. Over the last year, Iran has been building a number of bases in Syria, many as adjuncts to Syrian (Assad) military bases. Most likely, it was one of these Iranian bases that was hit. The Syrians and Russians now say that two Israeli jets flew over Lebanon and launched eight missiles at the base in Syria. The Syrians claim that they shot down five of the eight but that three got through and hit the base. That claim would normally be meaningless since the Assad forces traditionally lie about shooting down planes and missiles in order to avoid the embarrassment of being totally ineffectual in their air defense. Recently, the Syrians actually shot down and Israeli jet and it was the first time in 20 years that an Israeli jet had been hit. Of course, the claim of shooting down five missiles was also made by the Russians, but they may have been just repeating what the Syrians said. If the Syrians actually shot down five missiles, it would mean a major leap forward for the Syrian air defense system. That's extremely unlikely. After the recent shooting down of the Israeli jet mentioned above, Israeli jets retaliated and took out roughly half of the Syrian air defense systems in southeastern Syria in a few hours. There's essentially no way their systems could have been rebuilt in such a rapid way.
So what effect will the Israeli strike have? Will it mean that the USA will not take action because of the chemical weapons attack launched by Assad? I doubt it. President Trump will not likely accept an attack on an Iranian base as punishment enough for Assad. Will it mean that the USA has to stay in Syria longer than previously thought. Again, the answer is no. The site of the attack may be Syria, but the combatants appear to be Iran and Israel. Will the attack stop the construction of bases by Iran in Syria. Again the answer is no. The Iranians seem prepared to accept casualties in their ongoing move to try to take total control of Syria through their proxy, Assad. They won't mind a few more casualties from this Israeli attack. The only likely effect is that the weapons stored on the base were likely destroyed by Israel. That is one huge cache of weapons that Hezbollah won't have. In addition, Iran may have to be a bit more cautious in moving weapons across Syria to Hezbollah. The attack is just one more move in an ongoing war.
Notice that I did not talk about Iranian, Syrian or Russian retaliation for the attack. Syria doesn't have the ability to retaliate without getting drubbed by the Israelis in response. Russia could take action, but the Israelis and Russians seem to have reached a consensus in which Russia agrees that it will not interfere with Israeli attempts to stop Iranian moves in Syria. Remember, this was not a Russian base and no Russian troops were injured. So that leaves Iran. Will there be a direct attack on Israel or Israeli interests in response? It's possible, but unlikely. Iran knows that Israel has moved closer to both Egypt and Saudi Arabia as all three nations confront the threat from Iran. Indeed, Israel's attack on the Iranian base has probably been quietly cheered in Cairo and Riyadh. If there is a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, that would likely push the Israel cooperation with the Saudis and Egyptians to new and higher levels. That is exactly what the Iranians would like to avoid.
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