About a month ago, President Trump began talking about tariffs on Chinese goods as part of trade negotiations with Beijing. The Chinese threatened counter-measures. Specifically, we were told that US agricultural products would be hit. It led to a frenzy of mainstream media stories about how badly the dispute would damage American farmers especially in the soybean and pork producing part of the industry. The stories were silly since both soybeans and pork are major international markets that would simply shift supplies, suppliers and buyers from one region to another, but that did not stop the mainstream media. They had their story: President Trump was threatening the destruction of American farms and farmers.
Now it's a month later. It's worth taking a look at the soybean and pork markets to see how they have been affected by the tariff disputes. If the US farmers were losing markets, the price for these two products on the American market would have fallen. There would be less demand due to the loss of Chinese markets but the same supply; that means lower prices. So what do we find? Soybeans futures are priced just slightly higher than they were when the tariff disputes first erupted. Pork futures are about 5% higher than they were when the disputes appeared. In other words, there has not been any damage to the markets for these products or to the farmers who produce them as of now. The media and their "experts" were wrong.
Will we soon hear from the media itself of its mistake? Nope. The media never admits it is wrong; it just moves on to the next target and forgets the past.
Now it's a month later. It's worth taking a look at the soybean and pork markets to see how they have been affected by the tariff disputes. If the US farmers were losing markets, the price for these two products on the American market would have fallen. There would be less demand due to the loss of Chinese markets but the same supply; that means lower prices. So what do we find? Soybeans futures are priced just slightly higher than they were when the tariff disputes first erupted. Pork futures are about 5% higher than they were when the disputes appeared. In other words, there has not been any damage to the markets for these products or to the farmers who produce them as of now. The media and their "experts" were wrong.
Will we soon hear from the media itself of its mistake? Nope. The media never admits it is wrong; it just moves on to the next target and forgets the past.
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