In the New York Times, columnist Thomas Friedman writes about the brewing direct confrontation in Syria between Iranian and Israeli forces. I don't often say this about anything in the Times, but this column gets the story mostly correct. There really is a strong possibility of a direct armed clash between the Israelis and the Iranian in Syria.
The big problem is that Iran is trying to establish forward bases in Syria from which to threaten directly with Iranian weapons and manpower. Israel has made clear that it will not allow the Iranians or their proxy force Hezbollah to establish Syria as another frontier on which Israel faces these implacable enemies.
The result of the confrontation has been a steadily rising level of tension and a series of fights that have gotten larger and more dangerous as time has passed. The Iranians began by trying just to use Syria as a corridor through which to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That led to periodic Israeli strikes on convoys carrying the weapons. As the Assad regime regained the upper hand in Syria, the Iranians used their influence in Syria to gain the ability to build actual bases in that country. It was from one of these bases that the Iranians launched an armed drone to carry out attacks in Israel. The drone was shot down when it crossed into Israeli airspace, but a new level of confrontation was reached. Israel struck back at the base from which the drone was launched. There were major air attacks with Syria's ground forces taking on the Israeli Air Force. One Israeli plane was shot down, but something like half of the Syrian defenses in the Damascus region were taken out by the Israelis. Just a week ago, Israel attacked an Iranian base directly with missiles. All of this was mostly lost in the hubbub surrounding the use of chemical weapons by the Assad forces and the retaliation for that use by the USA, UK and France. It should not be overlooked, however, as it is a much more dangerous situation.
A direct confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria will almost surely draw in the forces of the other powers active in the region. That means the forces of the USA, Russia, Turkey, and all the factions in Syria will be embroiled in the fighting. If Iran is getting hit hard, it will most likely also have Hezbollah in Lebanon launching missile attacks into Israel. Even though Hamas is not allied with Iran, it may also take the occasion to launch attacks into Israel from Gaza. Such a move might bring the Egyptians into battle on the side of the Israelis against Hamas; that seems incredible, but it is not unlikely.
For years, we keep reading how Syria could launch a new world war. That did not happen. It is possible, however, that events in Syria that do not even feature Syrian forces could do just that.
The big problem is that Iran is trying to establish forward bases in Syria from which to threaten directly with Iranian weapons and manpower. Israel has made clear that it will not allow the Iranians or their proxy force Hezbollah to establish Syria as another frontier on which Israel faces these implacable enemies.
The result of the confrontation has been a steadily rising level of tension and a series of fights that have gotten larger and more dangerous as time has passed. The Iranians began by trying just to use Syria as a corridor through which to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That led to periodic Israeli strikes on convoys carrying the weapons. As the Assad regime regained the upper hand in Syria, the Iranians used their influence in Syria to gain the ability to build actual bases in that country. It was from one of these bases that the Iranians launched an armed drone to carry out attacks in Israel. The drone was shot down when it crossed into Israeli airspace, but a new level of confrontation was reached. Israel struck back at the base from which the drone was launched. There were major air attacks with Syria's ground forces taking on the Israeli Air Force. One Israeli plane was shot down, but something like half of the Syrian defenses in the Damascus region were taken out by the Israelis. Just a week ago, Israel attacked an Iranian base directly with missiles. All of this was mostly lost in the hubbub surrounding the use of chemical weapons by the Assad forces and the retaliation for that use by the USA, UK and France. It should not be overlooked, however, as it is a much more dangerous situation.
A direct confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria will almost surely draw in the forces of the other powers active in the region. That means the forces of the USA, Russia, Turkey, and all the factions in Syria will be embroiled in the fighting. If Iran is getting hit hard, it will most likely also have Hezbollah in Lebanon launching missile attacks into Israel. Even though Hamas is not allied with Iran, it may also take the occasion to launch attacks into Israel from Gaza. Such a move might bring the Egyptians into battle on the side of the Israelis against Hamas; that seems incredible, but it is not unlikely.
For years, we keep reading how Syria could launch a new world war. That did not happen. It is possible, however, that events in Syria that do not even feature Syrian forces could do just that.
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