I've just read or seen the sixth article or news report which discusses the potential for damage to pork producers from the possible tariffs on American pork by China. If you follow the mainstream media, you would think that all of American agriculture is about to collapse if China puts the port tariff in place. And, of course, that destruction would have been wrought by President Trump. I decided that a bit of research was in order, since not a single one of the reports I saw gave many facts. Here are the key points:
1. The international trade in pork in 2016 was $27.3 billion.
2. The USA was the second largest exporter of pork in that year with total sales of $4.2 billion. Germany was first.
3. About 16% of US pork exports go to China.
4. China is by far the world's largest producer of pork and pork products. China's pork production is about four times larger than that of the second place producer, the USA.
5. Despite the higher production in China, the price of pork in China is substantially higher than it is in the USA.
6. The imposition of a tariff by China will lead to a quick price rise for pork paid by Chinese people.
Conclusions:
A. Total pork sales by the USA to China had a value of less than a billion dollars in 2016. Sales in 2017 increased, but final numbers are not yet in. This is not a significant part of the American economy or even the American agricultural economy.
B. Because the USA is a low cost producer of pork products, it ought to be able to replace most, if not all, of the Chinese market lost due to the tariff.
In other words, while there may be a few pork producers whose operations get disrupted due to the Chinese tariff, this is not something that will threaten America's farm economy.
1. The international trade in pork in 2016 was $27.3 billion.
2. The USA was the second largest exporter of pork in that year with total sales of $4.2 billion. Germany was first.
3. About 16% of US pork exports go to China.
4. China is by far the world's largest producer of pork and pork products. China's pork production is about four times larger than that of the second place producer, the USA.
5. Despite the higher production in China, the price of pork in China is substantially higher than it is in the USA.
6. The imposition of a tariff by China will lead to a quick price rise for pork paid by Chinese people.
Conclusions:
A. Total pork sales by the USA to China had a value of less than a billion dollars in 2016. Sales in 2017 increased, but final numbers are not yet in. This is not a significant part of the American economy or even the American agricultural economy.
B. Because the USA is a low cost producer of pork products, it ought to be able to replace most, if not all, of the Chinese market lost due to the tariff.
In other words, while there may be a few pork producers whose operations get disrupted due to the Chinese tariff, this is not something that will threaten America's farm economy.
1 comment:
The
The Chinese own Smithfield which is the Largest pork producer in the World and it produces pork that flies to China. Yes pigs can fly!!
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