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Sunday, July 1, 2012

How Romney deal with Obamacare

I was watching Fox News Sunday this evening and saw a lengthy discussion about whether or not the Obamacare decision will help or hurt the president in the election. It was amazing to watch people who are supposedly thoughtful and plugged in to the political theater in Washington give the opinion that because of Romney's history in Massachusetts with the individual mandate, he will have a tough time making the case for the repeal of Obamacare. While this view was expressed only by some of the panel of pundits, it did not get the response that it should have.

After the discussion was over, I sent the following e-mail to Charles Lane of the Washington Post. I think it merits repeating:

I just watched you on the panel discussion of Fox News Sunday. I have to write to tell you just how much I disagree with what you said. You think that it will be difficult for Mitt Romney to make the case for repealing Obamacare. That really misses the central point of the argument. Romney will not argue in the coming months that the law requires people to buy insurance against their will. He will argue that Obamacare will drive healthcare costs up in the USA. He will argue that Obamacare will drive insurance premiums way up for the average American or his or her employer. He will argue that Obamacare will stop economic growth with the result that fewer jobs will be created. He will argue that cutting half a trillion dollars from Medicare will reduce the quality of care for elderly Americans. He will argue that Obamacare will force middle class Americans to pay for most of the coverage for many folks who want a free ride; paying a small penalty or tax (whatever you call it) so that you can have no insurance unless you need it is not something that the rest of America wants to support.

The list goes on, but these are the principal points. Even if Romney signed a mandate in Massachusetts, it changes none of these things. When Romneycare was passed, the unemployment rate in Massachusetts was under 5%; prosperity was the order of the day. Now we have high unemployment, high underemployment and huge numbers of folks who have just given up. Europe is in recession and it looks like China is about to follow. America is probably going in that direction as well. Just wait for the June employment report and you will see. My guess is that the terrible GDP numbers for the first quarter will start looking pretty good once the second quarter reports start coming in. Romney will just have to point out that the United States just cannot afford to have all the burdens of Obamacare placed on top of an already terrible economic situation.

You suggested that everyone rethink the opinion of what CJ Roberts did in the Obamacare opinion. I suggest that you rethink the conventional wisdom about how Romney will be prevented from arguing against Obamacare.

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