This week there have been two new polls in Virginia of the Romney-Obama race. According to Real Clear Politics, the average of the latest 5 polls shows Obama leading by 2.2%, but I noticed something quite revealing. Two of the five polls questioned registered voters. These polls show Obama ahead by 6.5%. Three of these polls questioned likely voters; it was not enough to be registered, there has to be an indication that the respondent will actually vote. These polls of likely voters show Romney leading Obama by 0.7%. This difference is not surprising; Republicans normally do better among likely voters than among registered voters.
As we get closer to election day, the pollsters will all switch to likely voters as the subject group. This should shift the results by one to three percent towards Romney. For what it is worth, a shift of three percent in the present polling would give Romney victory in more than enough states to win the race.
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