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Monday, July 23, 2012

The Day of Disaster Gets Closer in Syria

In a remarkable bit of sophistry, the Assad regime in Syria announced that it will use chemical and biological weapons against any foreign attack on Syria. The regime also announced that it will never use these weapons against the Syrian people no matter what happens. That statement is extraordinary for a number of reasons:

1) Syria has never before admitted that it has chemical or biological weapons in its arsenal. Today's admission shows just how desperate the current status of the Assad regime really is.

2) Assad seems to be saying that he will not use these weapons against his opponents in the current civil war. Now, however, we need to translate the statement into clear English. According to Assad, the elements fighting his regime are foreign agents engaged in terrorism. Throughout the fighting Assad has never admitted that his opponents are just other Syrians. What this means is that the declaration that the regime will use chemical weapons against foreign attack seems to be a warning that Assad will use these weapons against the rebels.

3) The Assad regime is threatening the use of these weapons rather than actually using them. This is unusual for the shoot first, shoot second, then explain methods of Assad. Assad surely knows that the rebels will not stop because of this threat. So why is he making the threat. It may be that the army has already told Assad that it will not use the weapons against Syrians. Assad may be trying to leverage the threat of use since he can no longer actually use these WMDs. More likely, Assad is about to use the weapons and he wants to be able to tell his supporters that the tens of thousands of dead Syrians were responsible for their own fates since they refused to heed this warning.

Things are very bad in Syria. It seems, however, that worse days are ahead.

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