Yesterday, I wrote about the reports of a massive explosion at Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility. Since then, there have been three additions of note to the story, each of which seem to me to increase the likelihood that the story is true.
First, Iran has issued a vehement denial that there has been any explosion at its facility. It called the reports "Western propaganda". The important thing to note about this denial, is that Teheran normally does not issue such announcements. The story had appeared only on some of the more fringe websites as of the time of the Iranian denial; there would be no reason for the mullahs to deny the story. Of course, there was no reason to deny the story, unless it was true.
Second, the Sunday Times became the first large news organization to give credance to the report of the explosion. It quoted unnamed Israeli intelligence sources who confirmed the truth of the story. London's most respected newspaper does not normally publish highly speculative stories, so there probably was some confirmation that the reporters received. While this does not conclusively prove that the explosion was real, it does move a long way in that direction.
Third comes the most ominous of the indicators. The Iranian expatriate, Reza Kahlili, who first broke the story at WND reported yesterday that the Iranian government believes that the explosion was the work of Israeli operatives even though the event took place the day before the Israeli elections. As a result, the mullahs have decided to retaliate against Israel. The Jerusalem Post quotes Kahlili as saying, "A decision was made to act in Lebanon. A request was made to [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah to vacate southern Lebanese villages. Islamic Republic Guards are on their way there. A decision has been made to prepare for missile launch from a certain area in Lebanon against Israel."
Normally, this kind of statement could be just some more misinformation that frequently gets printed in the middle eastern media. The problem here is that there is another report which tends to confirm the accuracy of what Kahlili is saying. Yesterday, Israeli media reported that the army had moved an Iron Dome battery to the Haifa area. Iron Dome is the Israeli anti-missile system which proved itself quite effective in the recent fighting near the Gaza Strip. The media reports speculated that the reason for the move was the possibility of missile attacks from Syria. Syria is in the midst of an unyielding civil war; there is little reason for Assad to launch missiles at the Israelis whose inevitable response would tilt the balance in that war towards the rebels. Assad would and has aimed such missiles at the rebels, not at Israel. On the other hand, if there is any truth to the report that Iran plans to launch missiles from Lebanon at Israel, then the biggest and most exposed target would be the city of Haifa, the place to which the additional Iron Dome battery was moved.
If Fordow was destroyed, it is a great victory for the forces of good in the world. On the other hand, if Iran launches a war from Lebanon against the Israelis, we may be entering very dangerous times, even by middle eastern standards.
First, Iran has issued a vehement denial that there has been any explosion at its facility. It called the reports "Western propaganda". The important thing to note about this denial, is that Teheran normally does not issue such announcements. The story had appeared only on some of the more fringe websites as of the time of the Iranian denial; there would be no reason for the mullahs to deny the story. Of course, there was no reason to deny the story, unless it was true.
Second, the Sunday Times became the first large news organization to give credance to the report of the explosion. It quoted unnamed Israeli intelligence sources who confirmed the truth of the story. London's most respected newspaper does not normally publish highly speculative stories, so there probably was some confirmation that the reporters received. While this does not conclusively prove that the explosion was real, it does move a long way in that direction.
Third comes the most ominous of the indicators. The Iranian expatriate, Reza Kahlili, who first broke the story at WND reported yesterday that the Iranian government believes that the explosion was the work of Israeli operatives even though the event took place the day before the Israeli elections. As a result, the mullahs have decided to retaliate against Israel. The Jerusalem Post quotes Kahlili as saying, "A decision was made to act in Lebanon. A request was made to [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah to vacate southern Lebanese villages. Islamic Republic Guards are on their way there. A decision has been made to prepare for missile launch from a certain area in Lebanon against Israel."
Normally, this kind of statement could be just some more misinformation that frequently gets printed in the middle eastern media. The problem here is that there is another report which tends to confirm the accuracy of what Kahlili is saying. Yesterday, Israeli media reported that the army had moved an Iron Dome battery to the Haifa area. Iron Dome is the Israeli anti-missile system which proved itself quite effective in the recent fighting near the Gaza Strip. The media reports speculated that the reason for the move was the possibility of missile attacks from Syria. Syria is in the midst of an unyielding civil war; there is little reason for Assad to launch missiles at the Israelis whose inevitable response would tilt the balance in that war towards the rebels. Assad would and has aimed such missiles at the rebels, not at Israel. On the other hand, if there is any truth to the report that Iran plans to launch missiles from Lebanon at Israel, then the biggest and most exposed target would be the city of Haifa, the place to which the additional Iron Dome battery was moved.
If Fordow was destroyed, it is a great victory for the forces of good in the world. On the other hand, if Iran launches a war from Lebanon against the Israelis, we may be entering very dangerous times, even by middle eastern standards.
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