The old saying tells one that when life gives you lemons, you are supposed to "make lemonade". Well, that is exactly what the regime of Bashir al Assad in Syria is attempting to do with the help of its main ally Iran. Yesterday, the Israeli air force destroyed a convoy of trucks carrying weapons to Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. According to informed sources, the weapons involved included advanced Russian made anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles and a small number of aging SCUD missiles. There is speculation but no confirmation that chemical weapons may have also been included. The destruction of the convoy is a major embarrassment for the Assad regime. First of all, the Israelis clearly knew all about what was happening, so the Assad regime proved unable to keep a secret. Second, the Syrian air force which has been very active attacking rebels who have no real ability to shoot down jets, did not even try to stop the Israeli jets which operated in Syrian airspace for about four hours. Assad's air force was shown to be toothless, to put it mildly. Perhaps Assad remembers the time a few years back when the Syrians tried to stop the Israeli fighter jets and had 68 of their planes shot down to a loss of none by the Israelis. Third, moving these weapons to Hezbollah is an admission that things are going quite poorly for Assad. The weapons were given to Assad by Iran. Clearly, the Iranians were trying to salvage control of them by its proxy Hezbollah before they were lost to the rebels. If Iran is in the process of a cut and run policy in Syria, the fall of Assad cannot be too long in the future.
In the face of this major loss by Assad, the regime has just chosen to lie. Assad's press announced that the attack was not on a convoy, but rather on a weapons research facility. In actual fact, the rebels made clear that it was they who had attacked the facility, and there was no air component in that attack. Assad and Iran have now threatened severe retailiation against Israel for its purported attack on the weapons research center. While it is doubtful that Assad will do anything (he is too busy fighting for his life --- literally), the hope in Damascus is that Assad can pick up some support around the country for "standing up" to Israel.
The real worry here, however, is not what Assad says. No one could believe that in any event. The question is whether or not more convoys will follow the first, or will the Israeli action dissuade Assad from trying again. My prediction is that Assad is unwilling to try again, but that relentless pressure from Iran to do so will lead to futher attempts in the near future.
In the face of this major loss by Assad, the regime has just chosen to lie. Assad's press announced that the attack was not on a convoy, but rather on a weapons research facility. In actual fact, the rebels made clear that it was they who had attacked the facility, and there was no air component in that attack. Assad and Iran have now threatened severe retailiation against Israel for its purported attack on the weapons research center. While it is doubtful that Assad will do anything (he is too busy fighting for his life --- literally), the hope in Damascus is that Assad can pick up some support around the country for "standing up" to Israel.
The real worry here, however, is not what Assad says. No one could believe that in any event. The question is whether or not more convoys will follow the first, or will the Israeli action dissuade Assad from trying again. My prediction is that Assad is unwilling to try again, but that relentless pressure from Iran to do so will lead to futher attempts in the near future.
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