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Saturday, January 12, 2013

Will 60,000 soon be 600,000?

This week, some of you may have seen the pictures of snow falling in Jerusalem.  The Israeli capital got a significant snowfall as a major storm blanketed the entire region for most of the last five days. High winds accompanied the storm and, for those areas nearer to the sea, there was significant rainfall that led to flooding.  In any area this would have been a major storm.  For the Middle East, this was a once-in-twenty-years event.  In Syria, though, the storm was a catastrophe.  There already are hundreds of thousands, or millions, of Syrians living in tent cities composed of refugees from the fighting in that country.  Even on a good day, conditions in these refugee camps are tenuous.  The high winds and heavy snow or rain have transformed these camps into cold puddles of mud.  Many of the tents were destroyed leaving the refugees without shelter.  Food supplies which already were extremely short were ruined.  Sanitation is non-existent.  And then there is the persistent cold temperatures.  These folks are not used to seeing freezing temperatures and they are not prepared for them.  It will take a while to see how this plays out, but there are likely to be a great many who die as a result of the aftermath of the storm.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the UN envoy tasked with trying to find a solution to the Syrian fighting has met with representatives of Russia and the USA.  The American told the UN that any solution had to result in the removal of Assad.  The Russian envoy took the position that Russia could not support any plan that required the removal of Assad; Russia wants the Syrian people to make that choice.  Of course, there is no mechanism by which such a choice could be made.  Simplifying the negotiations brings one to the only rational conclusion:  the UN envoy will never get the USA and the Russians to agree, so there will be no action by the Security Council that might bring and end to the fighting.  The world will get to see just how many Syrians die from the storm over the next month of so.



 

 

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