It's been quite a day in the Middle East insofar as Israel, Syria and Iran are concerned. The big news here in the USA is that President Trump pulled America out of the failed Iranian nuclear agreement. That merits careful attention, but there are other events happening right now that are also important to keep in mind. These are as follows:
1. The Israeli Defense Forces announced this morning that they had observed "irregular" movements by Iranian forces in Syria. As a result, Israel called up some reserves and instructed towns and other locations on the Golan to set up bomb shelters. This is something extraordinary. Calling up reserves happens often enough in Israel, but it is still not a common event. Opening bomb shelters, however, is an indication that the Israeli government views the situation as grave, indeed one that requires civil defense measures used during wartime to be activated. This has not happened in the Golan in a great many years.
2. Not long after the IDF announcement, the Syrians reported that a base used by the Iranians located in the southern suburbs of Damascus had been attacked. The attack was carried out by planes which the Syrians said were Israeli. There is video of the base in ruins and on fire although the extent of the damage cannot be determined from it. As usual, the Syrians claimed that the Israelis fired two missiles at the base and that the air defense system shot both down; they don't explain how the downed missiles cause such major damage at the base however. For its part, Israel will not confirm nor deny that its forces were involved in any attack.
3. The rumors are that the Iranians had put intermediate range missiles at the base for use in attacking Israeli territory and the Israel struck first to take out the threat. These are just rumors, however. Facts are hard to come by.
4. Meanwhile, there are also reports of Iranian naval forces sailing from ports in Iran. Is this a fleet to launch an attack on some US warship? Is this meant to sail to Israel to attack from off shore? Is there any real meaning to these movements at all?
There seem to be a few conclusions that should be clear.
A. Iran is highly unlikely to make any military move against the USA. The mullahs must know that they would quickly be wiped from the face of the earth should they launch a direct attack on America.
B. Iran is also unlikely to launch a direct attack on Israel. The Israelis obviously have nothing like the military force that is the US military, but the Israeli forces are formidable nevertheless. The mullahs understand that their forces in Syria would be quickly erased by the Israelis if there is no intervention by other powers. Their only hope would be for Russia to step in to stop the Israelis. Right now, that does not seem likely, but you can never tell what will happen. In fact, it would seem that the Russians would be happen to see the Iranian presence in Syria erased. That would leave Russia as the sole foreign benefactor of the Assad regime and would cement the Russian presence in that country.
C. The most likely attack is one that would come from Hezbollah hitting Israel. Even that one does not seem imminent, though. In the last five years, Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters in Syria. Given the small size of Hezbollah, those losses have hit a great percentage of the population in Lebanon that supports those terrorists. The leaders of Hezbollah understand two important points that will limit their activities: first, the current Israeli leadership will not hold back in striking Hezbollah everywhere if the terrorists launch missiles into Israel. In 2006, Israel waged a "proportional" war against Hezbollah and was unable to destroy the terrorists fully. The Netanyahu government is unlikely to make that mistake again. Second, in 2018, unlike in 2006, the USA is not going to constrain the Israelis from hitting the Hezbollah terrorists as hard as they possibly can. Unless the Russians were to intervene to save Hezbollah (something that almost certainly would not happen), a missile attack by Hezbollah on Israel threatens the terrorist group with its eventual destruction at the hands of the Israelis. There would be great destruction, but Israel would likely prevail in the end.
Put all of these together, and we have an extremely dangerous situation. Still, it remains unlikely that there will be an actual slide towards war.
1. The Israeli Defense Forces announced this morning that they had observed "irregular" movements by Iranian forces in Syria. As a result, Israel called up some reserves and instructed towns and other locations on the Golan to set up bomb shelters. This is something extraordinary. Calling up reserves happens often enough in Israel, but it is still not a common event. Opening bomb shelters, however, is an indication that the Israeli government views the situation as grave, indeed one that requires civil defense measures used during wartime to be activated. This has not happened in the Golan in a great many years.
2. Not long after the IDF announcement, the Syrians reported that a base used by the Iranians located in the southern suburbs of Damascus had been attacked. The attack was carried out by planes which the Syrians said were Israeli. There is video of the base in ruins and on fire although the extent of the damage cannot be determined from it. As usual, the Syrians claimed that the Israelis fired two missiles at the base and that the air defense system shot both down; they don't explain how the downed missiles cause such major damage at the base however. For its part, Israel will not confirm nor deny that its forces were involved in any attack.
3. The rumors are that the Iranians had put intermediate range missiles at the base for use in attacking Israeli territory and the Israel struck first to take out the threat. These are just rumors, however. Facts are hard to come by.
4. Meanwhile, there are also reports of Iranian naval forces sailing from ports in Iran. Is this a fleet to launch an attack on some US warship? Is this meant to sail to Israel to attack from off shore? Is there any real meaning to these movements at all?
There seem to be a few conclusions that should be clear.
A. Iran is highly unlikely to make any military move against the USA. The mullahs must know that they would quickly be wiped from the face of the earth should they launch a direct attack on America.
B. Iran is also unlikely to launch a direct attack on Israel. The Israelis obviously have nothing like the military force that is the US military, but the Israeli forces are formidable nevertheless. The mullahs understand that their forces in Syria would be quickly erased by the Israelis if there is no intervention by other powers. Their only hope would be for Russia to step in to stop the Israelis. Right now, that does not seem likely, but you can never tell what will happen. In fact, it would seem that the Russians would be happen to see the Iranian presence in Syria erased. That would leave Russia as the sole foreign benefactor of the Assad regime and would cement the Russian presence in that country.
C. The most likely attack is one that would come from Hezbollah hitting Israel. Even that one does not seem imminent, though. In the last five years, Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters in Syria. Given the small size of Hezbollah, those losses have hit a great percentage of the population in Lebanon that supports those terrorists. The leaders of Hezbollah understand two important points that will limit their activities: first, the current Israeli leadership will not hold back in striking Hezbollah everywhere if the terrorists launch missiles into Israel. In 2006, Israel waged a "proportional" war against Hezbollah and was unable to destroy the terrorists fully. The Netanyahu government is unlikely to make that mistake again. Second, in 2018, unlike in 2006, the USA is not going to constrain the Israelis from hitting the Hezbollah terrorists as hard as they possibly can. Unless the Russians were to intervene to save Hezbollah (something that almost certainly would not happen), a missile attack by Hezbollah on Israel threatens the terrorist group with its eventual destruction at the hands of the Israelis. There would be great destruction, but Israel would likely prevail in the end.
Put all of these together, and we have an extremely dangerous situation. Still, it remains unlikely that there will be an actual slide towards war.
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