The games are afoot in North Korea. Kim Jung Un canceled the meeting scheduled for Wednesday between the two Koreas. He also placed a question mark on whether or not the meeting with President Trump scheduled for June in Singapore will go ahead. The North Koreans say that they are upset by the joint military exercises by the USA and the South Koreans that are currently underway. They don't demand that those exercises be cancelled, but that is the clear import of the new North Korean message. This new position by Kim comes just after he met with president Xi of China. So what is actually going on, and how should the USA respond.
Here's a few things that need to be kept in mind.
1. When the original plan for the meeting between President Trump and Kim was set up, the North Koreans told the USA that they knew that the joint military exercises would be going ahead as scheduled. It seems highly unlikely that Kim suddenly decided that the military exercises were enough to cancel meetings to which he previously agreed. Something else must be at work here.
2. When Kim originally requested to meet with President Trump, it was right after a meeting held between Kim and president Xi of China. Now there's a second meeting between Xi and Kim and things change again. It certainly looks like the Chinese are playing a role in this.
3. Earlier this week, President Trump seemed to back off a bit on sanctions against a major Chinese phone manufacturer. That seemed like an odd move. It may be, however, that Xi announced that he would only have China force the North Koreans to the table so long as the USA backed off on some of the trade sanctions against the Chinese. The new announcement by Kim may be a way for the Chinese to verify their power over Kim to the White House.
4. The North Koreans are known to be mercurial and Kim is especially bizarre in his actions. Still, it seems unlikely that this pull back is part of a long term plan that the North Koreans have been following. After all, so far the USA has made no concessions to the NKs at all. On the other hand, Kim released the American hostages and took other steps like closing the nuclear test site that constituted concessions. North Korea gains nothing from this whole thing if there is no summit with President Trump. The North Koreans may be changeable, but they are not nuts.
5. It is possible that Kim has gotten some push back from others in the North Korean leadership and that this move is a way to boost his support among that group. In most countries, that would be more likely, but this is North Korea. People are killed for opposing Kim, and the rest of the leadership knows that. I doubt that there is much open opposition to Kim.
In view of all this, what is the best course of action for the USA? It's not a difficult question to answer. President Trump should send word to Kim that the military exercises will continue as planned, the sanctions will stay in place and our patience is wearing thin. If Kim still wants the summit, we are prepared to attend. If not, that is his decision to make. The USA, however, will not change its position under the threat of canceling the summit. And as to the Chinese, the President ought to tell Xi that the sanctions on the phone company will stay in place if the Chinese continue to use North Korea to undermine the planned summit. That's a move from strength that both the North Koreans and the Chinese can recognize. The end result may not be a peace deal with the North Koreans or a trade deal with China. Nevertheless, that is the course that is most likely to bring peace with the NKs. It is also the one most likely to get the USA a good deal with the Chinese.
Here's a few things that need to be kept in mind.
1. When the original plan for the meeting between President Trump and Kim was set up, the North Koreans told the USA that they knew that the joint military exercises would be going ahead as scheduled. It seems highly unlikely that Kim suddenly decided that the military exercises were enough to cancel meetings to which he previously agreed. Something else must be at work here.
2. When Kim originally requested to meet with President Trump, it was right after a meeting held between Kim and president Xi of China. Now there's a second meeting between Xi and Kim and things change again. It certainly looks like the Chinese are playing a role in this.
3. Earlier this week, President Trump seemed to back off a bit on sanctions against a major Chinese phone manufacturer. That seemed like an odd move. It may be, however, that Xi announced that he would only have China force the North Koreans to the table so long as the USA backed off on some of the trade sanctions against the Chinese. The new announcement by Kim may be a way for the Chinese to verify their power over Kim to the White House.
4. The North Koreans are known to be mercurial and Kim is especially bizarre in his actions. Still, it seems unlikely that this pull back is part of a long term plan that the North Koreans have been following. After all, so far the USA has made no concessions to the NKs at all. On the other hand, Kim released the American hostages and took other steps like closing the nuclear test site that constituted concessions. North Korea gains nothing from this whole thing if there is no summit with President Trump. The North Koreans may be changeable, but they are not nuts.
5. It is possible that Kim has gotten some push back from others in the North Korean leadership and that this move is a way to boost his support among that group. In most countries, that would be more likely, but this is North Korea. People are killed for opposing Kim, and the rest of the leadership knows that. I doubt that there is much open opposition to Kim.
In view of all this, what is the best course of action for the USA? It's not a difficult question to answer. President Trump should send word to Kim that the military exercises will continue as planned, the sanctions will stay in place and our patience is wearing thin. If Kim still wants the summit, we are prepared to attend. If not, that is his decision to make. The USA, however, will not change its position under the threat of canceling the summit. And as to the Chinese, the President ought to tell Xi that the sanctions on the phone company will stay in place if the Chinese continue to use North Korea to undermine the planned summit. That's a move from strength that both the North Koreans and the Chinese can recognize. The end result may not be a peace deal with the North Koreans or a trade deal with China. Nevertheless, that is the course that is most likely to bring peace with the NKs. It is also the one most likely to get the USA a good deal with the Chinese.
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