As the smoke settles from the Iranian missile attack on the Israelis and their overwhelming response, there are a few things that have become clear:
Iran is the big loser here. First, its military forces were embarrassed badly by the thrashing that the Israelis gave them. Iran fired 20 missiles at the Israelis. Four were shot down, the other sixteen did not come close to their targets and fell either into Syrian or Lebanese territory. The Iranian missile launch was 100% ineffective. The Israeli response was to target and hit 50 Iranian military installations or assets in Syria. All of them were hit, and most of them were destroyed. The Iranian military power in Syria was severely damaged.
Second, Iran's political gambit failed. The various attacks did not bring the Russians to do anything in Syria. That is a clear indication to Iran that it will not be getting Russian help in a fight with Israel, and that is a blow to the mullahs. More important, according to Russian news reports, Moscow has decided NOT to sell its latest air defense systems to the Syrians. That means that Syrian anti-aircraft will remain mostly the system that the old Soviet Union sold to Syria prior to 1980, a system which has been repeatedly proven unable to deter Israeli aircraft.
The fighting is not being perceived in the way that the Iranians wanted. Their hope was that governments around the world would see the attacks as the direct result of the decision by President Trump to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal. It didn't happen. The Europeans (who wanted the USA to stay in the JCPOA) nevertheless announced their support for Israel's right to defend itself against the Iranian missile attacks. Even the United Arab Emirates (which does not recognize Israel's right to exist) made a statement supporting Israel's right to defend itself. Most likely, the UAE fears Iran much more than it hates Israel.
We still have the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem coming up in a few days. That coincides with the 70th anniversary of the founding of Israel, and it also coincides with the promised biggest of the "demonstrations" along the Gaza border. The Iranians may use these events to launch another salvo of missiles at Israel or they could have Hezbollah do so from Lebanon. This was something that was highly likely to happen as of a week ago. Now, however, after Iran has been humiliated by the last exchange, the chances for such an attack has lessened. Lessening is not the same as disappearing, though.
One thing is certain: this was not a good week for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Between the President's move on the JCPOA and Israel's destruction of the Iranian military infrastructure in Syria and the world's reaction, the mullahs must not be too happy.
Iran is the big loser here. First, its military forces were embarrassed badly by the thrashing that the Israelis gave them. Iran fired 20 missiles at the Israelis. Four were shot down, the other sixteen did not come close to their targets and fell either into Syrian or Lebanese territory. The Iranian missile launch was 100% ineffective. The Israeli response was to target and hit 50 Iranian military installations or assets in Syria. All of them were hit, and most of them were destroyed. The Iranian military power in Syria was severely damaged.
Second, Iran's political gambit failed. The various attacks did not bring the Russians to do anything in Syria. That is a clear indication to Iran that it will not be getting Russian help in a fight with Israel, and that is a blow to the mullahs. More important, according to Russian news reports, Moscow has decided NOT to sell its latest air defense systems to the Syrians. That means that Syrian anti-aircraft will remain mostly the system that the old Soviet Union sold to Syria prior to 1980, a system which has been repeatedly proven unable to deter Israeli aircraft.
The fighting is not being perceived in the way that the Iranians wanted. Their hope was that governments around the world would see the attacks as the direct result of the decision by President Trump to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal. It didn't happen. The Europeans (who wanted the USA to stay in the JCPOA) nevertheless announced their support for Israel's right to defend itself against the Iranian missile attacks. Even the United Arab Emirates (which does not recognize Israel's right to exist) made a statement supporting Israel's right to defend itself. Most likely, the UAE fears Iran much more than it hates Israel.
We still have the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem coming up in a few days. That coincides with the 70th anniversary of the founding of Israel, and it also coincides with the promised biggest of the "demonstrations" along the Gaza border. The Iranians may use these events to launch another salvo of missiles at Israel or they could have Hezbollah do so from Lebanon. This was something that was highly likely to happen as of a week ago. Now, however, after Iran has been humiliated by the last exchange, the chances for such an attack has lessened. Lessening is not the same as disappearing, though.
One thing is certain: this was not a good week for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Between the President's move on the JCPOA and Israel's destruction of the Iranian military infrastructure in Syria and the world's reaction, the mullahs must not be too happy.
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