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Thursday, May 10, 2018

What's Real and What's Not

After a day has passed since the missile exchange between Israel and Iran, it's interesting to focus on what the reality of the situation actually is.  It certainly seems like the Iranians got their behinds handed to them by the Israelis.

Iran fired 20 missiles towards Israeli positions in the Golan Heights.  Four missiles were shot down by Israel's Iron Dome.  Not a single Iranian missile landed in Israeli territory.  There were no Israeli casualties.

Israel fired something like 60 missiles towards Iranian and Syrian positions after the Iranian attack.  Israeli jets also bombed positions in Syria.  Every anti-aircraft battery or SAM missile launcher that shot at the Israelis was destroyed.  Many Iranian missiles were also destroyed on the ground.  The targets were Iranian or Hezbollah except for Syrian (Assad) batteries that shot at the Israeli jets.  There were roughly 25 Iranian and Syrian soldiers killed in the attacks.

For years, the Israelis have had overwhelming air superiority compared to Syria.  The addition of Iran and its anti-aircraft forces was thought to have reduced the difference between the Israelis and their enemies.  That does not seem to have happened.

During the entire encounter, neither the Russians nor the USA played any part.  Prior to launching the counterattack, Israel notified both Russia and the USA of what it was about to do.  That means that the Russians did not even help the Iranians to the extent of warning them of the retaliation that was coming.  That fact has to make Teheran nervous.

It would not be unexpected if the Iranians decide to launch a full scale attack on Israel from the Syrian side of the Golan.  Right now, the Iranians look like incompetent clowns for their inept opposition to Israel.  Such a move could lead to a bloody all-out war involving both Iran and Hezbollah.  It is a very dangerous time in the Middle East.

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